Can USDJPY Break 155 This Week?USD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYTrade8Eight⏱️ Reading time: 2 minutes USDJPY has returned to the 155–156 support zone after one of its sharpest reversals this year. The chart shows why this area matters—but the bigger story is the collision between two powerful policy forces. 📌 How did we get here? The Middle East oil shock initially weakened the yen by raising Japan’s import costs. The Bank of Japan then kept rates unchanged twice, allowing USDJPY to push higher. Japanese authorities responded with three interventions between April 30 and May 6, spending a combined ¥11.7 trillion to support the yen. In June, the BoJ finally raised its policy rate to 1%. However, the move was largely priced in and failed to produce lasting yen strength. The real turning point came on July 31, when Japan and the United States conducted a rare joint intervention after USDJPY approached the 163–164 resistance zone. ⚔️ Hawkish Fed vs intervention risk This is the key conflict heading into the new week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message—and Friday’s much stronger-than-expected payrolls report—revived expectations of a September Fed hike. Higher US yields normally support the dollar and USDJPY. But on August 31, US and Japanese officials reaffirmed their commitment to an orderly yen market and continued joint efforts. This creates an unusual feedback loop: Higher US yields → stronger dollar → weaker yen → greater intervention risk In other words, the Fed may support USDJPY fundamentally, while the threat of another coordinated intervention limits how far the pair can rise without provoking an official response. 📅 What matters this week? • Tuesday: Japan’s final Q2 GDP • Thursday: US PPI • Friday: US CPI Hot US inflation could lift Treasury yields and trigger a USDJPY rebound. However, another move toward 160 would also bring intervention risk back into focus. Softer inflation would reduce the case for a Fed hike, pressure US yields and provide the cleaner catalyst for a break below support. 📉 My technical view USDJPY is currently testing the 155–156 decision zone. My bias remains bearish, but confirmation matters: • Consolidation or a weak rebound below the breakdown area would favor another leg lower. • A daily close below 155 could open the way toward the 152–153 support zone. • If selling accelerates, the larger downside target sits around 146.5–147.5. • A strong recovery above 160 would delay the bearish scenario, while a sustained return into 163–164 would invalidate it. 🔥 My preferred scenario is short USDJPY—but only after accumulation near support or a confirmed breakdown. Intervention changes volatility. It does not automatically change the trend. Because USDJPY remains highly sensitive to US yields, I explained one useful way to track changing Fed expectations in “What Can Help You Anticipate the Fed’s Next Rate Move?” You can find the full analysis in the Related publications. If this post was useful, feel free to boost 🚀 it and share your view in the comments 💬 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a public market view based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage your risk.