NIKE (NKE) — Can the Swoosh Make a Comeback?NIKE, Inc. Class BNYSE:NKERiskyCandlesNIKE NKE — FROM $179 TO $38: IS A LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITY TAKING SHAPE? --------------------------------- NKE has reached an area where I'm becoming increasingly interested from a long-term perspective. The stock has been in a significant multi-year downtrend and is now trading around levels last seen more than a decade ago. I'm not trying to call the exact bottom here. The long-term trend remains bearish until price proves otherwise. --------------------------------- What interests me is the location. --------------------------------- After such a significant repricing, I think NKE is entering an area where the long-term risk/reward deserves attention. --------------------------------- MONTHLY STRUCTURE My immediate area to watch is $37–$38.50. This is where NKE is currently attempting to establish support. If this level fails, I have several important historical demand areas underneath: $34.50–$36 — First major support below current price. $30–$33 — Major monthly support. This is one of the most important downside zones on my chart and represents significant historical structure from the 2013–14 period. $27–$29 — Secondary long-term support. $24–$26 — Major historical demand. If Nike experiences a much deeper capitulation, this becomes an important long-term area for me. $21–$23 — Extreme bearish scenario and the final major historical support zone I'm watching. I view these as areas rather than exact prices. On a monthly chart, I'm much more interested in how price reacts and closes around these zones than whether a particular dollar level is touched. --------------------------------- UPSIDE LEVELS Before talking about a major recovery, Nike has considerable overhead resistance to work through. My key upside areas are: $42–$46 — First significant resistance/reclaim area $50–$55 — Major weekly/monthly resistance $60–$65 — Major structural resistance $70–$77 — Important long-term supply $85–$90 — Major recovery target if the turnaround gains momentum $100–$110 — Psychological and historical resistance Beyond $110, I would reassess the structure rather than assuming an automatic return to Nike's NKE previous all-time high. --------------------------------- WEEKLY STRUCTURE On the weekly chart, I'm watching the current $37–$40 region closely. Holding this area and beginning to form higher lows would be the first positive sign. But a bounce alone isn't enough for me. I want to see: $37–$40 holds → base develops → $42–$46 reclaimed → higher low → $50–$55 breaks. A successful reclaim of $50–$55 would represent a much more meaningful change in the long-term structure. From there, my projections become: $60–$65 → $70–$77 → $85–$90 → $100+ --------------------------------- BEARISH SCENARIO The downside is equally important. If NKE NKE loses the current $37–$38 region and cannot reclaim it, I would look toward: $34.50–$36 then $30–$33 and potentially $27–$29 → $24–$26 in a deeper capitulation. A move into those areas wouldn't automatically make me bearish on Nike as a company. I would be watching how price behaves when it reaches those historical demand zones. What I don't want to do is assume that a stock is cheap simply because it has already fallen significantly. --------------------------------- MY LONG-TERM THESIS Nike NKE is still one of the world's most recognizable consumer brands, but the company is going through a genuine business turnaround. For me, this isn't currently a momentum investment. It's a potential turnaround + long-term accumulation opportunity. And there's an important difference. I don't need to catch the absolute bottom. I'd rather see price establish a base and give me evidence that institutional demand is returning. --------------------------------- My preferred bullish sequence remains: Support holds → accumulation → higher low → reclaim $42–$46 → break $50–$55 → long-term trend reversal develops. If the turnaround succeeds, I believe $60–$65, $70–$77 and eventually $85–$100+ become realistic technical areas to monitor over the longer term. If it doesn't, I already know the areas below where I'll reassess the thesis. --------------------------------- Current view: Potential long-term opportunity — but not yet a confirmed bottom. I'm watching price action around $37–$40 very closely. - Ken NFA — these are my personal chart observations and market analysis.