Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTArslan Ali ButtFri, September 4, 2026 at 8:37 AM GMT+2 5 min readDollar Index, EUR & GBP News: Payrolls Take Center Stage as Fed, ECB and BoE Rate Paths DivergeAfter the July job numbers integration and with the August numbers yet to be released, the dollar will start Friday on the back foot. Governor of the Federal Reserve, Christopher Waller, said Wednesday that some signs of disinflation would justify a holding of monetary policy at the September meeting. The markets priced in odds of a Fed rate increase standing at 50 percent, as opposed to 63 percent the previous day. The dollar is set to close the week in negative territory amid positive oil prices and persisting inflation concerns due to the Iranian crisis.In the August jobs report, payrolls are expected to show growth of about 56,000, a significant improvement from the July figure which decreased by 23,000. Unemployment is expected to stay steady at 4.1 percent. It is also expected that the report will show the moderation of wage growth. A reporting of lower numbers would encourage they Fed to pause, and higher numbers may cause expectations to resume.The euro, on the other hand, has the opposite of the U.S. in regard to monetary policy. A Reuters poll of 65 economists shows that there is a unanimous consensus that the ECB will raise the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent on September 10. Inflation in the euro zone remained at 3.3 percent for August with energy costs being a main driver, however core inflation has dropped to 2.4 percent. The problem for the ECB is likely to be the same after September: slow and steady with policy to avoid tipping an unstable economy into a recession.Sterling is gaining from more aggressive rate hike expectations from the Bank of England. Huw Pill argued in favor of an even more abrupt rate hike, anticipating that an energy shock caused by the Iran situation may cause inflation to rise and remain entrenched in the economy. The markets are not expecting a rate hike until September, but there is a much higher expectation for rate hikes in the near future. Concerns over the UK government's cash flow, due to raised yields on UK government bonds, are still present. This will likely set the government's budget for October.Fundamental bias: DXY neutral-to-bearish, EUR moderately bullish, GBP moderately bullish; payrolls in the United States are expected to be the strongest driver of the market today.U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Breaks Below 99.08 as 98.83 Support Comes Into FocusDollar Index Price Chart – Source: TradingviewThe DXY broke below 99.08 and is now focused on the 98.83 level. A move below that level will likely indicate further movement toward the 98.68 and then the 98.56 levels. The selling pressure will likely continue as long as DXY moves beneath the 99.08 level on a sustained basis. The broad structure of the market will likely remain the same even with a small move to the 98.83 level, which will likely be resisted.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info