EURUSD: Intraday Bearish Structure Points to Another Leg Lower

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EURUSD: Intraday Bearish Structure Points to Another Leg LowerEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDew-forecastMarkets are starting the week after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its September meeting. However, US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, so liquidity should be lower and we may see slower price action. Middle East tensions also remain an important focus, especially around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, keeping crude oil elevated and adding to inflation concerns. This is important because higher oil prices can keep pressure on inflation and support higher yields and interest rates. Looking ahead, we have a busy second half of the week, with US PPI and the ECB rate decision on Thursday, followed by the key US CPI report on Friday. After the strong jobs data, inflation numbers will be especially important for the Fed outlook, so US yields should remain one of the main drivers for the dollar, stocks, metals and crypto this week. EURUSD saw some selling at the end of last week, exactly from our mentioned resistance area around 1.1640, but the market stabilized pretty quickly after Friday's US jobs data. It now looks like we are still tracking a corrective recovery, which could become a bit more complex. Also, let's not forget that today is a US holiday, so price action could remain slow and choppy. If we see another recovery, 1.1640 remains important resistance, followed by the 1.1660 area, from where the market could turn lower again. Overall, the structure remains bearish, especially after the earlier five-wave decline from the 1.1711 high. So after the current pause, we would expect at least one more leg down, with 1.1566 being an important level to watch. GH