The decision itself carries little fresh price signal, since it confirms a roadmap the market had already priced in. The more relevant read for oil is how limited OPEC+'s real-world leverage has become while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, meaning announced quotas are increasingly disconnected from actual barrels reaching the market. That gap matters most for how traders interpret any future OPEC+ move: a headline quota change carries less weight than usual until Gulf export flows normalise. The more consequential catalyst now sits with the 2027 production-capacity review, which will shape how much spare capacity the group can credibly bring back once the conflict eases.---Oil futures will being trade at 6pm US Eastern time:Why Globex still opens on the night before a US market holiday---OPEC+ is holding its production line for October, but with Hormuz disrupted the group is increasingly managing barrels on paper rather than in the physical market.Summary:OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October at a Sunday meeting of seven core members led by Saudi Arabia and RussiaThe decision keeps the group on its existing roadmap to hold targets flat through the end of the yearThe Iran war continues to disrupt exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+'s real influence over prices and market shareOPEC+ still produces well below its stated targets despite completing a phased rollback of 2023-era supply cuts in AugustThe group's next priority is a capacity review to set 2027 output baselines, due for completion this monthThe seven-member sub-group will hold its next meeting on 4 OctoberOPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October, Reuters reported, as the group's seven core members again held quotas flat rather than adjusting output ahead of a more consequential review due later this year. The Sunday meeting of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman confirmed the roadmap already flagged by sources, holding targets steady through the end of 2026 while the group works through a separate review process.The decision lands as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor several Gulf producers have partly worked around using alternative pipeline routes and covert shipments. That disruption has significantly narrowed OPEC+'s practical influence over the physical market, even as the group has continued raising quotas on paper. In August, OPEC+ completed the phased unwinding of a 1.65 million barrel per day cut first agreed in 2023, but actual production remains well below those targets because of the conflict.An oil market analyst focused on geopolitical risk said OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical market, since the group can adjust production targets on paper without any guarantee those barrels are produced or reach buyers. The analyst added that the group's focus is shifting away from monthly production tweaks toward a far more consequential debate over 2027 output baselines.That debate now sits at the centre of OPEC+'s next phase. Before deciding how to unwind a further layer of supply cuts still covering most of the broader 21-country coalition, the group needs an audit of each member's actual production capacity, work expected to conclude later this month ahead of a full alliance meeting in late November. Given that timeline, OPEC+ is widely expected to pause further output increases through the fourth quarter, though Sunday's statement made no explicit mention of policy beyond October.The real test for OPEC+'s influence, according to the analyst, will come only once Hormuz fully reopens, at which point the group could shift abruptly from managing constrained exports to confronting a potential surplus. The seven-member sub-group is due to meet again on 4 October. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.