Recent Market Review and Gold Forecast for Next Week

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Recent Market Review and Gold Forecast for Next WeekGOLD (US$/OZ)TVC:GOLDSmith_LienHello everyone: Gold closed with a doji candlestick this week, indicating that the market remains in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. This is a typical signal of balanced power between the two sides. Gold prices fluctuated throughout the week, without a clear one-sided trend. Considering the overall market structure, gold is expected to continue its range-bound trading next week. A clearer direction will only be determined after next week's CPI data is released. For range-bound markets, we have three important trading principles: 1. Double top resistance and double bottom support areas; 2. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level; 3. Gold's strength or weakness during the European session and its breakout of key levels. Generally, combining these three principles in range-bound markets can lead to success. From the current weekly chart, the market currently has clear support and resistance zones. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the lowest point this week, around 4282, is the key support level for next week. As long as the short-term pullback doesn't break below this level, the bullish structure of gold won't be completely destroyed, and any further pullback will present an opportunity to go long. If gold effectively breaks below 4282, it indicates that the bearish trend has taken over, and the downward trend has begun. We need to short gold in the 4290-4310 area, and the main strategy going forward will be shorting. This area is the starting point of this week's gold rally and also a key support/resistance conversion zone. The key resistance level is around 4510, which is also this week's high. If gold effectively breaks through this level, the bullish trend will reopen, and gold is expected to challenge 4570 and 4630. Our main strategy then will be to go long on dips. In summary, until the 4282-4510 range is fully broken, our trading strategy will remain focused on buying on dips and selling on rallies. As we can see, gold prices fell sharply after Friday's non-farm payroll data was released, with the daily chart showing a long lower shadow bearish candlestick. Given that the US market will be closed next Monday, market liquidity will be significantly reduced, and a large one-sided trend is unlikely on Monday; the overall market is expected to trade within a range. Next Monday, we will focus on the support level of gold in the 4370-80 area, and the resistance level in the 4470-80 area. I believe that any movement of gold to these two areas will present a profit-making opportunity.