Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTMicah Zimmerman, The Motley FoolThu, September 3, 2026 at 10:20 PM GMT+2 6 min readCostco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) stock has been on an absolute tear over the last five years, jumping by more than 100% in five years due to its growing popularity and booming membership model. It is already one of the most valuable retailers in the world, but an interesting valuation race is hiding in plain sight.As of Aug. 31, The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) was worth about $327 billion, and Lowe's Companies (NYSE: LOW) was worth about $115 billion. That gives the country's two largest home-improvement retailers a combined market cap of $442 billion.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Costco, by comparison, was worth about $417 billion in July and August. That means Costco is only about $25 billion away from surpassing the combined market cap of these two companies. The question is whether Costco can close that gap by 2030. I think it can, and I think it can do so easily.Costco has a business that people keep coming back toThe first thing investors should understand about Costco is that its membership model changes the economics of retail. Customers pay Costco before they buy anything. In the U.S., a Gold Star membership costs $65 per year, while an Executive membership costs $130 per year. This year, the company raised those prices across about 52 million memberships, with a little more than half of them in the Executive tier.That is important because Costco does not have to convince every customer to become profitable on every individual transaction. It first needs to convince customers that the membership is worth renewing. Then it gets the shopping relationship.Most of the products Costco sells are not niche purchases. People need groceries, household supplies, toiletries, appliances, and other everyday goods. They also need gasoline. Costco operates gas stations at many of its stores in several of its major international markets, giving members another reason to visit its warehouses.That creates an interesting loop. A member may join for bulk prices on groceries, stop for gasoline on the way home, buy something from Kirkland Signature, and eventually (down the road) decide that the pricier Executive membership makes sense because of the rewards. It's clear that Costco is a habit business.Image source: Getty Images.The numbers show the habit is getting biggerTerms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info