YAN ZHUANG2026年9月7日今年4月，中国阜阳的一场招聘会上挤满了前来求职的大学生。 Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA few months out from graduating with a master’s degree in urban planning, Jin Shangyu is watching artificial intelligence upend the industry she is trying to enter.距离硕士毕业还有几个月，学习城市规划专业的金尚宇（音）正眼睁睁地看着人工智能颠覆她试图进入的行业。Job boards are filled with roles that require A.I. expertise, while listings for traditional roles seem to be dwindling. Much of the work involved in the early stage of a design project, which used to involve several people, can now be executed with a few clicks of a mouse.招聘网站上充斥着需要人工智能专长的职位，而传统岗位的招聘信息似乎正在减少。设计项目前期阶段的大量工作过去需要好几个人完成，现在点几下鼠标就能搞定。Since getting her degree from the University of Hong Kong, Ms. Jin, 26, who is from northern China, has applied for about 150 internships and entry-level jobs in Hong Kong and mainland China, but has been met with silence. She took a $400 professional A.I. course in hopes of standing out in the marketplace. It does not seem to have helped. No wonder, she thought: If even seasoned workers are being undercut by A.I., what chance was there for those seeking to enter the work force?26岁的金女士来自中国北方，自香港大学毕业后，已在香港和内地申请了约150个实习和初级职位，但均石沉大海。她花400美元上了一门人工智能专业课程，希望能在求职市场中脱颖而出，但这似乎没什么用。她心想，这也不奇怪：如果连经验丰富的从业者都被人工智能抢了饭碗，那刚想入行的新人还有什么机会？“My feeling is that we, new graduates, are exactly the kind of people that A.I. will replace,” she said. When she thinks about planning for her future, she said, “I really don’t know how to even begin because I don’t see hope.”“我的感觉是，我们这些应届毕业生正是人工智能要取代的那类人，”她说。谈到规划未来时，她说：“我真的不知道该如何开始，因为我看不到希望。”An estimated 12.7 million new graduates are joining China’s work force this year, the largest yet of a cohort that has been steadily growing over the years. They are facing two intractable and connected challenges. Like previous classes, they are entering an oversaturated job market and competing for a shrinking pool of entry-level positions in a sluggish economy. But they also face a new obstacle in the added uncertainty of A.I., which is beginning to restructure industries and change recruiters’ priorities.据估计，今年将有1270万应届毕业生加入中国的劳动力大军，这是多年来持续增长的毕业生群体中人数最多的一次。他们正面临两个相互关联且难以解决的挑战。和往届毕业生一样，他们进入的是一个饱和的就业市场，在经济疲软的环境下争夺日益减少的初级职位。但他们还面临一个新障碍：人工智能带来的额外不确定性。人工智能正开始重构行业格局，改变招聘方的优先考量。It is a global problem. College graduates around the world are grappling with the prospect that entry-level jobs could simply disappear. But in China, the concern is acute. The country has adopted A.I. at an almost unmatched pace, spurred by government support and broad public enthusiasm, while youth unemployment remains stubbornly high.这是一个全球性问题。世界各地的大学毕业生都在应对初级职位可能直接消失的前景。但在中国，这种担忧尤为紧迫。在政府支持和广泛的公众热情推动下，中国以前所未有的速度引入人工智能，而与此同时青年失业率始终居高不下。This July, the rate for urban residents aged 16 to 24 was 17.9 percent. The supply of desirable, well-paying graduate jobs has not kept pace with the ballooning number of young people who entered college.今年7月，16至24岁城镇居民的失业率为17.9%。优质的高薪毕业生岗位供给未能跟上激增的大学入学人数。“A.I. has arrived at a particularly difficult moment, though it did not create the underlying problem,” said Christian Yao, a senior lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand who has studied how young Chinese people are navigating the job market.“人工智能在一个特别困难的时刻到来，尽管它并非造成根本问题的根源，”新西兰惠灵顿维多利亚大学高级讲师克里斯蒂安·姚说道，他一直在研究中国年轻人如何在就业市场中寻找出路。Unemployed and Unhappy失业与不满For China’s leaders, who have long derived much of their political authority from the promise of prosperity, there is a risk that high youth unemployment could be a source of political unrest.对中国领导人而言，其政治权威的很大一部分长期来源于对繁荣的承诺，青年失业率高企可能成为政治动荡的源头。Any negative effect that A.I. may have on youth unemployment, however minor, is acutely sensitive for the party, said Scott Singer, a fellow and co-director of the China AI Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. More broadly, he said, “China is extremely concerned about the labor market impacts from A.I. It’s perhaps their greatest concern right now” in relation to A.I.卡内基国际和平基金会中国人工智能项目研究员兼联席主任斯科特·辛格表示，人工智能可能对青年失业率产生的任何负面影响，无论多么微小，都对执政党极为敏感。更广泛地说，“中国极其关注人工智能对劳动力市场的影响。这可能是他们目前在人工智能方面最关心的问题。”Wary of the potential human and political fallout from the A.I. revolution, Beijing is leaning on companies to avoid layoffs. It has signaled through several court rulings that it is unwilling to accept A.I. cost savings as a justification for job losses.出于对人工智能革命可能带来的人员和政治后果的警惕，北京正在向企业施压以避免裁员。通过几项法院裁决，政府已表明不愿接受以人工智能节省成本作为裁员的理由。今年3月，北京的一场招聘会上，一个人形机器人正在向参观者鞠躬。In January, the government announced “targeted employment support for key industries,” and some party officials have proposed more sweeping interventions, such as encouraging employers to offer vocational training to help workers adapt to an A.I.-centric job market.今年1月，政府宣布了“重点行业针对性就业支持”，一些党内官员则提出了更全面的干预措施，如鼓励雇主提供职业培训，帮助工人适应以人工智能为核心的就业市场。So far, the impact of A.I. and automation has been felt most strongly in manufacturing and food delivery, two of China’s largest employment categories. The effect on white-collar jobs is only starting to be felt, experts said.专家表示，迄今为止，人工智能和自动化的影响在制造业和外卖配送这两个中国最大的就业类别中感受最为强烈。对白领岗位的影响才刚刚开始显现。In interviews, young job seekers described trying to find their footing in a landscape that was changing rapidly because of A.I. They spoke of anxiety, uncertainty and, in some cases, despair as their job searches dragged on. Their only consolation: Everyone seemed to be struggling together.在采访中，年轻求职者描述了在因人工智能而快速变化的就业环境中努力寻找立足之地的经历。他们谈到了焦虑、不确定，以及在求职拖延日久时产生的绝望。他们唯一的安慰是：似乎所有人都在一起挣扎。“My spirit has been ground down into nothingness,” said Zinnia Zhou, who graduated this year with a master’s degree in television broadcasting.“我的精神已经被消磨殆尽，”广播电视专业硕士毕业生周津妮亚（音）说。Ms. Zhou has submitted more than 2,800 job applications over the past year. That has led to fewer than 20 interviews and zero job offers so far, she said. She used to carefully comb through job listings and apply only for positions that fitted her skill set — now she applies for anything. Even landing an interview no longer gives her hope.周女士在过去一年中提交了超过2800份求职申请。她说，这仅带来了不到20次面试机会，至今零录取。她过去会仔细筛选招聘信息，只申请符合自己技能的岗位——现在她什么都投。现在就算拿到面试，她也不再抱什么希望了。Ms. Zhou said she had noticed an increasing number of job openings for roles around producing A.I.-generated dramas and shows. But her university degree had done little to prepare her for the way the labor market was changing because of A.I., she said. And employers, at least in Hangzhou where she was looking, seemed to be interested only in candidates who had significant experience, she said.周女士说，她注意到越来越多关于制作人工智能生成剧集和节目的职位空缺。她说，大学里学的知识对她适应人工智能带来的就业市场变化几乎没什么帮助。而且，至少在她求职的杭州，雇主似乎只对具有丰富经验的候选人感兴趣。“There’s too many applicants, and they want someone who can get started right away,” she said. “They’re not interested in training you.”“申请者太多了，他们想要的是能马上上手的人，”她说。“他们没兴趣培训你。”A Qualifications Arms Race学历内卷Though A.I. is creating some job opportunities, they are largely open to a small pool of applicants who are already skilled in the technology, said Mr. Yao, the Victoria University lecturer. At the same time, he said, junior white-collar work, such as administrative tasks, research, basic analysis and coding, are more susceptible to automation.维多利亚大学的姚老师表示，尽管人工智能确实创造了一些就业机会，但主要集中在少数已掌握该技术的求职者群体中。同时，行政、研究、基础分析和编程等初级白领岗位更容易被自动化取代。“China is especially exposed because its entry-level professional market was already highly competitive,” he added. A qualifications arms race is emerging, he said, adding that “we now see master’s degrees, and sometimes doctorates, requested for relatively junior roles.”“中国尤其容易受到冲击，因为其初级专业人才市场本就竞争激烈，”他补充道。一场资质军备竞赛正在出现，他说，“我们现在看到相对初级的职位也要求硕士甚至博士学位。”今年6月，清华大学毕业典礼现场。For some new graduates, even a high-level degree can no longer feel enough. Luna Wang, who graduated this year with a master’s degree in management, has applied for nearly 200 jobs in Hong Kong and mainland China in fields like project management, product management and procurement planning, with little success.对一些应届毕业生来说，即使是高学历也不再够用。管理学硕士毕业生王露娜（音）在香港和中国内地申请了近200个项目管理、产品管理和采购规划等领域的职位，但收效甚微。Still, Ms. Wang, 25, felt relatively sanguine about the impacts of A.I. on her career prospects. She said she did not think that the technology would significantly affect her because the jobs she is applying for cannot easily be automated, as they require negotiations and face-to-face interactions.不过，25岁的王女士对人工智能影响其职业前景的态度相对乐观。她说，她不认为这项技术会对她产生重大影响，因为她申请的岗位不容易被自动化，因为它们需要谈判和面对面交流。“You need to have skills that robots and A.I. can’t do to survive,” she said.“你需要拥有机器人和人工智能做不到的技能才能生存，”她说。For Ms. Jin, the urban planning student, the opportunities that were available to her predecessors appeared to be vanishing. In the faltering economy, there were fewer projects for designers to work on and a lack of openings at design institutes, where many new graduates go after university, she said. And companies seemed to be automating the tasks traditionally done by interns that would help them gain skills and experience.对城市规划专业的金女士来说，前辈们曾拥有的机会似乎正在消失。她说，在经济低迷的情况下，设计师可参与的项目越来越少，设计院——许多毕业生的去向——也缺乏空缺职位。而且，企业似乎正在将传统上由实习生完成、帮助他们积累技能和经验的工作自动化。She saw new roles in areas like A.I. operations opening up, but found it difficult to gauge whether these would lead to a long-term career or were just the product of temporary hype. Some companies seemed to be rushing to adopt A.I. without having a clear idea of what they wanted to achieve with it, she said, describing the landscape as “very chaotic.”她看到人工智能运营等领域的新岗位正在出现，但很难判断这些岗位是能带来长期职业发展，还是仅仅是短暂炒作的结果。她说，一些公司似乎在匆忙引入人工智能，却没有明确目标，形容现状“非常混乱”。While she keeps applying for jobs, she is trying to make use of A.I. to help her create a portfolio that she hopes will help her stand out. She hopes that the labor market’s A.I. convulsions will settle down in the next few years.在继续投简历的同时，她正尝试利用人工智能来帮助自己制作作品集，希望这能让她脱颖而出。她希望就业市场的人工智能动荡能在未来几年平息下来。“I think we’re going through a period of upheaval right now,” Ms. Jin said. “I just happen to have the bad luck of living through such a period.”“我认为我们正在经历一段剧变期，”金女士说。“我只是运气不好，偏偏生活在这样一个时期。”Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。Yan Zhuang是时报驻首尔记者，报道突发新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site