The gap between the Navy's account and the independent traffic data is itself the market-relevant signal. Kpler's 10-day average of just 10 vessels a day, the lowest since May, points to genuine physical tightness in Hormuz-transiting supply regardless of how safe passage is being characterised publicly, keeping the geopolitical risk premium in oil firmly intact. With Marisks assessing risk as extreme for Iranian-linked tonnage and materially elevated for US-linked shipping, insurance and freight costs for any vessel attempting the route are likely to stay elevated, reinforcing upward pressure on landed crude costs even before accounting for the direct loss of throughput. The fact that a refined products tanker was turned back attempting to exit adds a further squeeze on product availability layered on top of the crude disruption.--Independent shipping data show Hormuz traffic at its lowest since May, a picture that sits awkwardly next to the US Navy's own account of stepped-up tanker escorts.Summary:An average of 10 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to Kpler's moving averageThe US Navy has said it has been escorting significantly more ships through the strait, a claim that stands in contrast to the traffic dataUS forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off Kharg Island, after Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked US warships in the regionThe IRGC navy said it retaliated by targeting three tankers on unauthorised routes and three additional US vessels elsewhereMaritime intelligence firm Marisks called the Saturday strikes a major escalation, assessing risk as extreme for Iranian-linked tonnage and materially elevated for US-linked shippingThere have been 27 projectile strike incidents since 6 July affecting vessels in and around the strait, according to UKMTO's weekly reportHormuz shipping traffic has fallen to its lowest level since May, Reuters reported, even as the US Navy has said it has been escorting significantly more vessels through the strait. Kpler's 10-day moving average showed just 10 commodity vessels transiting per day, down from more than 15 on Friday and nearly 13 on Saturday, with only two vessels passing through on Saturday and six on Sunday, mostly using the Iranian route.The decline follows a sharp escalation over the weekend. US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off Kharg Island, Iran's key export hub, after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked US warships in the region. In retaliation, the IRGC navy said it targeted three tankers travelling unauthorised routes in the strait, alongside three additional US vessels in other areas. The three Iranian tankers, named as Downy, Stark I and Kylo, also known as Noxen, were identified by maritime intelligence firm Marisks.Marisks described the Saturday attacks as a major escalation in the maritime conflict, warning that commercial tankers are now being used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, eroding the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping. The firm assessed risk as extreme for Iranian or Iran-linked tonnage, and materially elevated for US-linked or US-escorted shipping throughout the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, a risk framing that sits uneasily alongside the Navy's own characterisation of its escort activity.The disruption extends beyond crude. A tanker carrying refined products loaded from a Saudi port attempted to exit the strait but was turned back, according to LSEG data, while no very large crude carrier has exited since Wednesday, Kpler data showed. On Sunday, one VLCC and three bulk carriers laden with metals, grains or oilseeds entered the strait. The UK Maritime Trade Operations office noted 27 projectile strike incidents since 6 July have caused damage to vessels operating in and around Hormuz.Whether the Navy's escort claims and the observed traffic figures can be reconciled remains unclear from the available data, and readers should treat the two accounts as separate, unverified claims pending further confirmation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.