Monero Weekly Breakout: The 2021 Ceiling Just Became the FloorMonero / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:XMRUSDT.PGreenCryptoTrades$Monero is attempting something it has failed to do for four and a half years. XMRUSDT on Binance Perpetual is trading at $540.72, up 10.8% on the week, above the $500 to $517 zone that marked the 2021 all-time high. That zone rejected price in May 2021, capped every rally in 2022, and even the violent January 2026 spike that wicked to $800 could not hold a weekly close above it. Price is above the level as I write this, but the candle has not closed. With roughly a day and a half left in the week, this is a setup to watch, not a confirmed breakout. The structure behind the move is what makes it worth watching. Since the Feb 2024 low near $105, XMR has printed a clean series of higher lows, and each pullback in 2025 landed on a rising trendline drawn from that bottom. The 50-week moving average has been climbing since mid-2024 and now sits near $360, well below price, which says the trend is mature but not yet extended. The $185 to $190 band, which acted as resistance from 2022 through 2024, flipped to support in early 2025 and has not been revisited since. That same resistance-to-support flip is now being attempted at the 2021 high. What I want to see at the close is simple: a weekly candle that finishes above $517, ideally above $540, with the wick staying short relative to the body. That would be the first weekly close above the 2021 high in Monero's history. If it prints, the first target is $720, the body of the January 2026 rejection candle, where the last breakout attempt lost momentum. Above that sits the $800 wick, which remains the true all-time high. A weekly close through $800 would put Monero into price discovery with no overhead supply, and the Fibonacci 1.0 extension of the 2024 low to the 2026 high, projected from the mid-2026 low, points to roughly $995 as a stretch target. The bear case is just as clear, and the January 2026 spike shows exactly how it looks: a fast push above $517 followed by a full retrace within two weeks. If this week's candle closes back below $517, the breakout has failed before it started and I treat the move as a wick into resistance. A close below $500 confirms rejection, and a close below $480 in the following weeks invalidates the thesis entirely. In that case the next supports are the $420 swing high from late 2025 and the rising 50-week average near $360. Key levels to watch: resistance at $570 (this week's high), $720 and $800; support at $517, $500, $420 and $360. Confirmation is a weekly close above $517. Invalidation is a weekly close below $480. Follow Our Tradingview Account for More Technical Analysis Updates, | Like, Share and Comment Your thoughts