NDX Reclaimed Its SMA20. Underneath It Got Worse.NASDAQ 100 IndexNASDAQ_DLY:NDXTradeSentinelNotes1️⃣ What is it today? Deterioration — not yet Stress. NDX is still above its SMA20, SMA50, SMA100 and SMA150. But only 32.4% of Nasdaq stocks remain above SMA20. Long-term breadth has also weakened to 64.7% above SMA200. 2️⃣ Thesis Price is holding up better than participation. That sounds constructive at first — but after several weeks, it becomes a divergence. Nasdaq leadership remains weak: 45 new highs vs 92 new lows. And VIX/VIX3M is still just 0.82. 3️⃣ What validates repair? Watch for: SMA20 breadth back above 40–50% new lows contracting sharply SMA200 breadth stabilizing above 60–65% NDX holding above SMA50 positive-volume days producing follow-through volatility remaining contained That would turn the current deterioration into a breadth reset. 4️⃣ What validates further deterioration? The next warning chain is: breadth toward 20–25% SMA200 breadth below 60% new lows remain elevated NDX loses SMA50 VIX/VIX3M moves toward 1 That would shift the regime much closer to Stress. What matters The key change is: price repaired slightly, breadth did not. That makes the divergence more important, not less. What is mostly noise NDX being up 0.21%. The index is not the weak part of this market. The stocks underneath it are. TradeSentinel Takeaway The Nasdaq has now spent several weeks weakening internally while the index itself remains resilient. That can resolve two ways: breadth catches up to price, or price catches down to breadth. Right now, breadth carries the burden of proof. The next positive signal needs to be broader participation — not merely another NDX bounce.