Oil prices climb as US-Iran missile strikes keep Hormuz risks elevated

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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices rose again on Friday following reports of Iran’s ballistic missile launches. Iranian forces recently said they were going to switch from defensive tactics to launching pre-emptive strikes against US military assets across the Middle East.The increase in the risk premium has kept oil prices supported, as intensifying US-Iran strikes in the Strait of Hormuz have fuelled fears of prolonged supply disruptions.In other news, OPEC+ kept October oil output unchanged over the weekend as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have reduced the group’s ability to influence physical oil supply and prices. The oil market has been driven solely by US-Iran war news.The key question now is whether this is just another temporary flare-up or a prolonged war. Trump mentioned that the recent ​military campaign against Iran ‌would not continue for "too long", so I would wait for signs of de-escalation to start positioning for lower prices. If things escalate further, then we might see WTI oil breaking above the July high and start eyeing the $100 mark again.  CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil is consolidating near the July high around the 93.50 level. That’s where the sellers continue to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, are waiting for a break higher to extend the rally into the 97.00 handle next. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor support zone around the 89.00 handle that defines the 89.00-93.50 range. Market participants will likely continue to play the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either side. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 89.00 support or the major trendline, while the sellers will continue to pile in around the 93.50 resistance or wait for the break below the 89.00 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSOn Thursday, we get the US PPI report and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report. The focus will remain on US-Iran strikes. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.