KOSPI: Has the Correction Come to an End?

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KOSPI: Has the Correction Come to an End?KOSPI Composite IndexKRX:KOSPISwissquoteSince reaching its all-time high on Friday, June 19, the KOSPI index has declined by more than 40%, driven by profit-taking in the semiconductor industry's leading stocks. The KOSPI had experienced a near-vertical rally since the spring of 2025, with a sharp acceleration in its upward momentum beginning in September 2025. A situation of extreme overbought conditions combined with bearish divergence on the long-term charts triggered, last June, what was a perfectly logical profit-taking phase—a healthy retracement from the perspective of technical analysis. Last week, the KOSPI briefly fell below its 200-day moving average before rebounding. Given the very strong forward fundamentals of the semiconductor industry, can this correction in the KOSPI be viewed as a buying opportunity within the context of the long-term uptrend? Both the fundamental and technical analyses reach the same conclusion: the answer is yes—it represents an opportunity. Let us first recall what the KOSPI is and identify the two stocks that are driving its long-term trend. The KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) is South Korea's benchmark stock market index. It tracks the country's leading companies listed on the Seoul Stock Exchange and serves as a key indicator of South Korea's economic and industrial health. Its composition perfectly reflects the country's specialization in advanced technologies, industrial exports, and global value chains. The table below shows the top five stocks in the KOSPI index. Samsung and SK Hynix together account for approximately half of the benchmark index's weighting. The KOSPI's recent performance has been driven primarily by two semiconductor giants: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Both companies hold strategic positions within the global memory chip ecosystem, particularly as demand has surged due to artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure. SK Hynix has become a key player in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market, an essential technology for the AI accelerators used by the world's leading cloud providers. Samsung Electronics, for its part, continues to dominate the memory, display, and consumer electronics markets while also seeking to strengthen its position in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. From a technical analysis perspective, a major support level lies at 5,000 points, corresponding both to the weekly Ichimoku cloud and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire vertical rally recorded over the past 14 months. The chart below displays the KOSPI's weekly Japanese candlestick chart, highlighting the major technical support at 5,000 points, which coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the entire vertical advance since the spring of 2025. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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