Jump to contentIndependentSwipe for next articleIndependent Bulletin homepageDownload our appAllNewsSportCultureLifestyleRachel DobkinThursday 06 August 2026 07:42 BSTDemocratic lawmakers are sounding the alarm over betting on natural disasters, arguing that it both increases the risk of criminal activity and is morally wrong (Reuters)A group of Democratic senators has expressed strong concerns about the practice of betting on natural disasters, specifically wildfires, arguing it is morally wrong and increases criminal risk.The senators sent a letter to Michael Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), highlighting that prediction markets like Polymarket allow bets on wildfire outcomes, such as acres burned or containment times.They warned that such betting could incentivize individuals to commit arson or prolong existing fires to ensure their bets are successful, posing significant public safety risks.The letter requested that the CFTC clarify by August 14 whether betting on wildfires is in the public interest and what guidance or enforcement actions the agency plans to take.This concern arises during a "record-breaking" wildfire season in the US, with some prediction market platforms, like Kalshi, already prohibiting such bets due to the creation of "perverse incentives."In fullPrediction market betting may influence arson as several states see unprecedented wildfires, Senators warnMore bulletinsThank you for registeringPlease refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in