EUR/USD: Channel Rejection Puts Support Back in Focus

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EUR/USD: Channel Rejection Puts Support Back in FocusEuro vs. US DollarFX:EURUSDStructure_ViewEUR/USD has reached the upper boundary of its rising four-hour channel and is beginning to lose momentum after another failed attempt to extend beyond 1.1560. The broader structure remains constructive while price holds inside the channel, but the latest rejection suggests that the pair may need to reset before buyers can attempt another move higher. The first important test now sits around 1.1455–1.1475, where horizontal support overlaps with the lower half of the channel. This confluence makes the area more important than an ordinary support level. Why This Level Matters The 1.1460 region previously acted as resistance before the latest bullish expansion. Price later broke above it and accelerated toward the channel ceiling, which means the same area may now be tested as support. A controlled pullback into the zone, followed by a bullish reaction, would preserve the rising structure and support another attempt toward 1.1540–1.1560. However, a confirmed four-hour close below the decision zone and channel support would materially weaken the setup. That would expose the broader demand area around 1.1365–1.1385, where buyers previously initiated the latest impulsive advance. Market Context The dollar is trading in a mixed environment ahead of the U.S. employment report. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July, while policymakers remain divided over whether persistent inflation could justify another increase. Mary Daly has defended the decision to remain patient, but other officials have continued to warn that inflation risks have not disappeared. At the same time, softer private-sector employment data and falling oil prices have reduced some expectations for aggressive Fed tightening, limiting the dollar’s ability to extend gains. Markets are therefore waiting for payroll data to provide clearer direction. Trading Scenarios Bullish: A clear rejection from 1.1455–1.1475 would keep the channel intact and reopen the path toward 1.1540 and the upper boundary. Bearish: A sustained break below the decision zone would confirm a loss of channel support and shift attention toward 1.1365–1.1385. For now, this is still a pullback inside an ascending structure—not a confirmed trend reversal. Does the 1.1460 area hold as support, or is the channel finally beginning to fail?