BTC - Midterms 2026Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTVIAQUANTHere is my analysis on Bitcoin going into the 2026 midterm elections. Most people online are calling for a major Bitcoin collapse, since prior midterms have been followed by significant corrections. Usually the herd is wrong, and in this case BTC looks like it is preparing for a move to the upside instead of a breakdown. The only question is whether that move is short lived or becomes a more sustained uptrend. The Moving Average Convergence The structure Bitcoin is building is very bullish and looks like a low has been established. Three critical moving averages have converged at the same price to support Bitcoin: the 100 MA (red), the 200 EMA (dark blue), and the 365 MA (purple). Of these three, the 365 is the most important to watch. It marked the top on September 3rd, then price broke through it on September 18th and used it as support before pushing through the May high. Bitcoin is now proving that support again. The RSI Bitcoin's daily RSI is also nearing oversold conditions while at the same time printing a bullish divergence. The RSI created a lower low while price created a higher low. The Two Scenarios From the current price action, I see one of two things happening. In the first, Bitcoin only rallies to $80k to $82k and uses that old support as new resistance, as the $2.71T level does on TOTAL. It then has a dramatic drop similar to what past election cycles have shown. In the second, Bitcoin has created a significant low here and starts a midterm election rally that takes price somewhere between $98k and $104k before it forms a top and pulls back significantly. The Takeaway Either way, the structure currently laid out looks like the foundation for a move to the upside. If anything changes, I will post updates after the midterm elections, but for now this is my outlook.