XAUUSD Nov 4: Sell 3944-3949 pullback, buy 3895-3902 range lowGoldOANDA:XAUUSDToan_AlphaDAILY PLAN | XAUUSD Nov 3 plan review: the SELL 3966–3972 setup triggered at 8:45 AM ET (high 3971.36, the 8:00 AM ET H1 candle closed 3960.84 with an upper wick) and hit TP1 3944 at 9:15 AM ET and TP2 3927 at 10:15 AM ET; TP3 3906 is still about 11 points away (low 3917.57 at 3:00 PM ET). Question of the day: are the 3970.31 and 3971.36 highs already a double top? Not yet. Price was sold off twice at 3970–3971, but a double top only completes on a close below the low between the two highs, here 3895.57 (4:00 AM ET Nov 3). At 3930, price is still in the middle of the box. So I read the market as a 3895–3971 range: sell the upper half, buy the lower edge only with confirmation, and call it a double top only after an H4 close below 3895. Pattern: H4 range 3895–3971, upper edge rejected twice. 1. Market structure - D1: the bearish trend is intact; the latest high 4082.82 (Oct 28) is still lower than the one before. The Nov 3 candle has long wicks both ways (3895.57–3971.36) but closed 3930.32, near its open, showing indecision after Monday's rebound. - H4: price has been ranging in the 3895–3971 box for two sessions. One H4 candle rallied 72 points and the next erased most of it; sellers still hold the top. - H1 and M15: after 3971.36, H1 printed lower highs at 3945.64, 3937.51 and 3935.32; the 3917.57 low held and price edged back to 3930 at the open. Preferred view: SELL on a pullback to 3944–3949 (with the D1 trend). BUY 3895–3902 is a counter-trend trade and needs H1 confirmation. 3917–3935 is mid-range; do not chase. 2. Key levels Resistance: 3965–3972: range top, rejected at 3970.31 and 3971.36. 3944–3949: base of last night's drop, M15 highs 3949.17, 3948.72, 3945.64. 3935–3938: minor pullback highs 3937.09, 3938.55, 3935.32. Support: 3917–3923: this morning's 3917.57 low and last night's 3923.03. 3895–3902: range low 3895.57, 3896.30, 3898.96. 3870–3875: last week's low 3870.32. 3. Main scenario Scenario 1: SELL at 3944–3949 (with the D1 trend) - Wait for a pullback into the base of last night's drop. Trigger: an H1 long upper wick or bearish engulfing candle closing back below 3944. - Reference plan: Entry: 3944–3949 Stop Loss: 3957 TP1: 3926 | TP2: 3905 | TP3: 3878 R:R (from 3946): TP1 1:1.8 | TP2 1:3.7 | TP3 1:6.2 - TPs sit 2–3 points ahead of support: TP1 above 3917–3923, TP2 above 3895–3902, TP3 above 3870–3875. Scenario 2: BUY at 3895–3902 (COUNTER-trend) - A counter-trend trade against D1, based on a range low that has held twice. Touching the zone is not enough: wait for an H1 close above the latest swing high of the drop into the zone. No falling-knife buys. - Reference plan: Entry: 3895–3902 Stop Loss: 3887 TP1: 3914 | TP2: 3932 | TP3: 3941 R:R (from 3898): TP1 1:1.5 | TP2 1:3.1 | TP3 1:3.9 - Short targets because it is counter-trend: TP1 below 3917, TP2 below 3935, TP3 below 3944. Move SL to breakeven at TP1. 4. Alternative: price breaks above 3957 without rejection - Drop the 3944–3949 sell. Wait for a third test of the 3965–3972 range top and sell again only on an H1 close below 3965 after an upper wick, SL above 3981. If H1 closes below 3917 before any pullback, do not chase the short; wait for a retest of 3917–3923. 5. Scenario switch levels - H4 close above 3972: the range breaks up, drop the bearish view, price may head to 3998–4013. - H4 close below 3887: the double top completes, drop the BUY, next target 3870–3875. 6. Conclusion - Bias for Nov 4: D1 bearish, H4 ranging. Prefer selling the 3944–3949 pullback; buy the 3895–3902 range low only after H1 confirmation. - News (ET): 8:15 AM ADP employment, 10:00 AM ISM services. Reduce size 8:00–8:30 AM and 9:45–10:15 AM. Check the spread before placing orders. - Lesson of the day: in a range, the edge is at the two sides of the box; trading the middle means paying both sides. Note: This is a personal technical view, not investment advice. Entry, SL and TP zones are for reference only. Traders should assess their own risk, manage capital and wait for confirmation before making decisions.