Nov 05, 2026, 1:23 AM ETModerna, Inc. (MRNA) StockLee Bailey144 FollowersModerna is rated Strong Sell at $220.83, with a working valuation of ~$60/share, implying 73% downside despite promising melanoma trial results.MRNA's Phase 3 melanoma data with intismeran and Keytruda shows a 42% relative reduction in relapse or death, but commercial and manufacturing hurdles remain.Pipeline optimism is reflected in valuation, but current revenues, persistent cash burn, and limited near-term product launches create a wide gap to the current equity value.Even optimistic DCF scenarios justify only $101/share; sustainable FCF and broader product success are needed to support today's price.Veronique D/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesModerna (MRNA) has now shown what the cancer field has long sought: encouraging Phase 3 data for a tailored mRNA drug. Intismeran autogene, made with Merck, resulted in significantly fewer melanomas coming back in patients givenThis article was written byLee Bailey144 FollowersLee Bailey is the founder of Grizzly Bulls, an independent financial research and investing platform. His research focuses on fundamental valuation, market structure, artificial intelligence and private-market companies, and systematic investment strategies.With a background in software engineering and quantitative research, Lee combines primary-source financial research, valuation analysis, and data-driven methods to study situations where market prices may diverge from underlying fundamentals.At Grizzly Bulls, he publishes original research on companies, industries, investment funds, and emerging areas of the financial markets. His Seeking Alpha work focuses on translating that research into actionable investment analysis for public-market investors.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Comments