REID J. EPSTEIN2026年11月4日周日，安克雷奇的选民们。民主党计划在该州参议院竞选中推举一名搅局的候选人，此举激怒了共和党人。 Erin Schaff/The New York TimesFor the last two months, President Trump has offered a consistent plea: Pretend he’s on the ballot.过去两个月来，特朗普总统一直反复向选民发出一个呼吁：就当他的名字也在选票上。 The midterm elections on Tuesday will give voters an opportunity to do just that. They are set to render the first national referendum on a second-term Trump agenda characterized by far-reaching tariffs, an unpopular war with Iran and an aggressive immigration crackdown.周二的中期选举将给选民一个这样做的机会。这场选举预计将成为对特朗普第二任期议程的首次全国性公投，该议程以影响深远的关税、不受欢迎的对伊朗战争以及激进的移民打击为特征。Republican officials are bracing for a harsh judgment and potentially significant defeats. They widely expect to lose control of the House. They have grown increasingly worried about losing the Senate, too.共和党官员正为选民可能作出的严厉裁决，以及潜在的重大选举失利做准备。他们普遍预计，共和党将失去众议院控制权。与此同时，他们也越来越担心，参议院可能同样失守。Democrats have sought to define their campaigns through anger over high prices driven by tariffs and the war, focusing heavily on the idea of making life cost less. Led by Mr. Trump, Republicans have struggled to articulate an affirmative counterargument, with the president dismissing concerns about the economy and sending an often scattered message.民主党人试图围绕选民对关税和战争推高物价的愤怒来展开竞选，将降低民众生活开支作为核心诉求。在特朗普的领导下，共和党人一直难以提出有说服力的正面回应。总统本人不仅淡化选民对经济的担忧，传递的政治信息也往往杂乱无章。American politics is of course full of surprises. While Republicans have underperformed in both midterm elections of the Trump era, the president has demonstrated his ability to turn out his most loyal supporters. He has also stepped up his baseless attacks on the U.S. election system, raising fears of federal interference in the results.当然，美国政治从来不乏意外。尽管共和党在特朗普时代的前两次中期选举中表现均不及预期，但特朗普已经证明，他有能力动员最忠实的支持者投票。他还加大了对美国选举制度毫无根据的攻击，引发人们对于联邦政府可能干预选举结果的担忧。 Democrats need a net gain of just three House seats to win a majority. The Senate is a heavier lift: Democrats must hold all of their seats and flip at least four Republican-held ones. They are competing in states like Texas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and Kansas, which has not done so since 1932.民主党只需在众议院净增三个席位，就能取得多数席位。参议院的难度则大得多：民主党必须守住全部现有席位，同时从共和党手中夺取至少四席。他们正在得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州等地展开角逐。得州自1988年以来就没有选出过民主党籍联邦参议员，而堪萨斯州上一次选出民主党籍联邦参议员更要追溯到1932年。And if Democrats flip at least two Republican-held governorships, they will hold a majority of them for the first time since 2010, when a backlash to President Barack Obama fueled a Republican wave that has shaped American politics ever since.如果民主党人至少翻转两个共和党控制的州长职位，他们将自2010年以来首次获得州长多数。当年，对奥巴马总统的不满情绪推动共和党掀起胜选浪潮，并深刻影响了此后的美国政治格局。在特朗普总统的带领下，共和党人一直难以明确其竞选方针。Polls will close starting at 6 p.m. Eastern. The results that follow will shape the country for at least the next two years, and perhaps much longer. Here are six themes to watch as voting ends:投票站将从东部时间下午6点开始关闭。随后的结果将至少在未来两年、甚至更长时间里塑造这个国家。以下是投票结束后值得关注的六个方面：How deep into Republican territory can Democrats reach?民主党能在多大程度上深入共和党的传统地盘？ Look at where the competitive races were in the final days of the campaign.看看竞选最后几天，哪些地方的选情依然胶着。Solidly red Kansas and Ohio have tossup Senate races. Democrats are seriously contending in House districts like the one in northern New York being vacated by Representative Elise Stefanik — where Mr. Trump won by 21 percentage points two years ago.在共和党根基深厚的堪萨斯州和俄亥俄州，参议院选举陷入胜负难料的局面。民主党还在一些众议院选区形成了有力竞争，例如纽约州北部由众议员埃莉斯·斯特凡尼克腾出的席位。两年前，特朗普曾在该选区以21个百分点的优势获胜。Governor’s races are tight in conservative states like Florida, Nebraska and Oklahoma, where Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, the chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, spent Monday night stumping for the party’s nominee. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win even a single county in Oklahoma was Al Gore in 2000.在佛罗里达州、内布拉斯加州和俄克拉荷马州等保守州，州长选情胶着。民主党州长协会主席、肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔周一晚上就在俄克拉荷马州为该党候选人拉票。自2000年阿尔·戈尔以来，再没有任何民主党总统候选人能在俄克拉荷马州赢得哪怕一个县。Over the weekend, Republicans rushed money into Louisiana’s Senate race, which had not been considered a competitive contest before then. Both parties have also directed late money to the Senate races in Mississippi and South Carolina, states that have been out of reach for Democrats for a generation.上周末，共和党紧急向路易斯安那州的参议院选举投入资金。而此前这场选举一直被认为胜负毫无悬念。两党还在最后关头向密西西比州和南卡罗来纳州的参议院选战追加资金。民主党已经几十年未能在这两个州赢得参议院选举。 With Democrats widely expected to win races in at least some red House districts and threatening to flip Senate seats in deep-red states, the question is how far into Republican terrain they can prevail.外界普遍预计，民主党将在至少部分共和党占优势的众议院选区获胜，甚至有望夺取一些共和党根基极为深厚的州的参议院席位。现在的问题是，民主党究竟能在共和党的传统地盘上取得多大突破。How angry are voters about Trump’s handling of the economy?选民对特朗普处理经济问题的方式有多愤怒？Voters care most about whether they can afford their everyday needs, and polls suggest that they are angered about the high prices brought on by tariffs and a war ordered by Mr. Trump.选民最关心的是日常生活开支能否负担得起。民调显示，特朗普实施的关税政策以及他下令发动的战争推高了物价，引发选民不满。The president spent the day before the election talking about his alterations to the Reflecting Pool in Washington. Over the last few weeks, some of his most memorable rally lines have been about the anatomies of Republican Senate candidates.选举前一天，特朗普却把时间花在谈论自己对华盛顿倒影池所作的改造上。过去几周，他在竞选集会上最令人印象深刻的一些言论涉及共和党参议员候选人的身体部位。 Mr. Trump’s approval ratings have sunk to record lows. Republican candidates who have recast their political identities in his image are struggling to convince voters that they can be independent.特朗普的支持率已跌至历史低点。那些按照他的形象重塑政治身份的共和党候选人正努力说服选民相信，他们能够保持独立。In many cases, Republicans have not even tried to make a case that the economy is in good shape. Instead, they have tried to change the subject.在许多情况下，共和党人甚至没有试图论证经济状况良好，而是试图转移话题。In Michigan’s Senate race, former Representative Mike Rogers has sought to push the Muslim faith and family background of his Democratic opponent, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, to the center of the campaign. In Texas, voters have seen an onslaught of Republican ads about how James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee, talked about transgender rights in the past. And in Maine, Senator Susan Collins is selling voters on the idea that her seniority after four terms is best for her state.在密歇根州的参议院选战中，前众议员迈克·罗杰斯试图将其民主党对手阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德博士的穆斯林信仰和家庭背景推到竞选活动的中心。在得克萨斯州，选民看到了大量共和党广告，内容是关于民主党参议院提名人詹姆斯·塔拉里科过去对跨性别权利的表态。在缅因州，参议员苏珊·柯林斯向选民推销这样的理念：她四届任期积累的资历最有利于本州。包括柴油在内的燃料价格上涨是选民们关注的问题。If Democrats win the House, how big will their majority be?如果民主党人赢得众议院，他们的多数席位优势会有多大？We could know fairly early in the evening what kind of night it will be for the House.我们可能在晚上较早时候就能知道众议院将迎来怎样的夜晚。In Indiana and the eastern half of Kentucky, polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern. There are tight races in Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District, which Mr. Trump carried by 15 points in 2024, and Indiana’s Fifth District, which he won by 17 points.在印第安纳州和肯塔基州东半部，投票站于东部时间下午6点关闭。肯塔基州第六国会选区（特朗普曾在2024年以15个百分点获胜）和印第安纳州第五选区（特朗普以17个百分点获胜）选情胶着。Both are competitive races that will reveal some of the first clues about the rest of the electoral map. They are districts that combine rural and suburban voters and are usually safe for Republicans.这两场选战都竞争激烈，将揭示关于其余选区格局的一些初步线索。这些选区汇集了农村和郊区选民，通常是共和党的安全选区。There are dozens of similar House districts across the country.全国还有数十个类似的众议院选区。What’s the fallout from the national redistricting fight?全国重新划分选区之争带来了什么影响？Starting with Texas last summer, Republican-led states began redrawing their congressional district lines to try to secure more House seats for their party.从去年夏天得克萨斯州开始，共和党主导的各州陆续着手重新划定国会选区边界，试图为本党争取更多众议院席位。The new maps were based on the idea that the electorate in 2026 would look somewhat like the one that carried Mr. Trump to victory in 2024.新选区图基于这样的想法：2026年的选民结构将与2024年助特朗普赢得大选时的选民结构大致相似。That does not seem to be the case.实际情况似乎并非如此。Latino voters have turned against Mr. Trump, shifting the politics of South Texas and South Florida, where Republicans tried to lock in advantages. Rural voters are furious about the price of diesel fuel. Black voters, early voting data suggests, are turning out in huge numbers.拉丁裔选民已转而反对特朗普，改变了南得克萨斯州和南佛罗里达州的政治格局，共和党人原本曾经试图在那里锁定优势。农村选民对柴油价格高涨感到愤怒。早期投票数据表明，黑人选民的投票率正大幅攀升。The result is that House districts drawn with the express intent of putting them in Republican hands instead have competitive races. In Texas, Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina, there are increasingly tight races in districts Mr. Trump would have carried by double digits had they existed in 2024.结果是，那些原本明确旨在确保共和党获胜而划定的众议院选区，如今反而出现了竞争激烈的选战。在得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州、田纳西州和北卡罗来纳州，一些选区的选情日益胶着，如果这些选区在2024年就已存在，特朗普本可以在那里以两位数的优势获胜。Meantime in California, voters approved a plan aimed at delivering five House seats for Democrats, and redistricting does not seem to have placed any of the party’s seats at risk.与此同时，在加利福尼亚州，选民批准了一项旨在为民主党人带来五个众议院席位的计划，而重新划分选区似乎没有让民主党的任何席位面临风险。What about all the Republican money?那么共和党的巨额资金呢？Elon Musk spent at least $474 million to back Republicans in the midterm elections. The next four biggest donors are also Republicans. And Mr. Trump had an unmatched war chest.埃隆·马斯克至少花费了4.74亿美元支持中期选举中的共和党人。排在他后面的四位最大捐助者也是共和党人。而特朗普拥有无人能及的竞选资金储备。If Republicans defy expectations, it will be at least in part because of a financial advantage built long before races became tight in the campaign’s final weeks.如果共和党人出乎意料地取得好成绩，至少部分在于，早在竞选最后几周选情趋紧之前，他们就已经建立了资金优势。At the same time, Democratic officials involved in House and Senate races have lamented that they do not have the money to compete in as many districts and states as they would like.与此同时，参与众议院和参议院选战的民主党官员感叹资金不足，无法在尽可能多的选区和州展开竞争。Will Democrats be hurt by their Senate-race dramas?民主党人会在参议院选战的戏剧性选情中受挫吗？The red-state Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas and South Carolina are competitive in part because Democrats have nominated a generally strong slate of candidates who have mostly avoided major problems on the campaign trail.艾奥瓦州、堪萨斯州、密西西比州、俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州的红州参议院选战竞争激烈，部分原因是民主党人提名了一批总体上实力强劲的候选人，他们大多在竞选过程中避免了重大问题。That’s not the case for their blue-state brethren.蓝州候选人则并非如此。Maine Democrats switched out their candidate in July after the primary winner, Graham Platner, was forced out of the race after a rape allegation, which he denied.缅因州民主党人在7月更换了候选人，此前初选获胜者格雷厄姆·普拉特纳因强奸指控被迫退出竞选，他否认这一指控。Michigan was convulsed this weekend by a late endorsement flip, with Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the Senate primary to Dr. El-Sayed, defecting and backing the Republican in the race, Mr. Rogers.密歇根州周末因一次迟来的背书反转而震动，众议员海莉·史蒂文斯在参议院初选中输给埃尔-赛义德，倒戈支持该州共和党候选人罗杰斯。And in light-blue Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has led in polling in her Senate race despite being trailed by the state’s major fraud scandal and being viewed as running one of the party’s weakest campaigns.在浅蓝色的明尼苏达州，尽管副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根卷入了该州一起重大欺诈丑闻，且其竞选活动被视为该党最薄弱的活动之一，但她在参议院竞选的民调中仍保持领先。There’s also Alaska, where a New York Times report last week about Democratic chicanery to help Mary Peltola, the party’s nominee for Senate, by recruiting a second Dan Sullivan into the race set off a wave of Republican anger.还有阿拉斯加州，《纽约时报》上周报道称，民主党人为帮助该党参议院提名人玛丽·佩尔托拉耍花招，办法是招募另一个丹·沙利文参加竞选，这引发了共和党人的愤怒浪潮。Polls show the Democratic nominees leading or with an edge in all four races, but some of these contests — especially in Michigan and Maine, where Ms. Collins, the incumbent Republican, is a formidable opponent — have required more resources and attention than party leaders would have preferred.民调显示，民主党提名人在这四场竞选中领先或略占优势，但其中一些选战耗费的资源和精力已超出党内领导层的预期，尤其是在密歇根州和缅因州——缅因州现任共和党参议员柯林斯是一名强大的对手。Reid J. Epstein是《纽约时报》记者，自华盛顿报道竞选活动及选举新闻。翻译：杜然、晋其角点击查看本文英文版。