AUD/USD Tends Toward Neutral to BearishAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / U.S. DOLLARFX_IDC:AUDUSDNouzTraderAUD/USD is showing a weakening of its short-term bullish structure following a rejection from the 0.7040–0.7068 supply area. The price failed to sustain its upward momentum and began forming a "lower high," signaling increased selling pressure. AUDUSD The decline intensified after the price broke below the 0.7000 support level, moving toward the 0.6960–0.6972 demand area. However, buyers managed to push the price back above the 0.7000 psychological level. Currently, the price is undergoing a technical rebound toward 0.7014, though it remains below the 0.7030–0.7041 resistance zone. As long as this resistance remains intact, any upward movement is likely just a correction within a short-term bearish structure. Overall, the price remains in a relatively wide consolidation phase. Therefore, a confirmed breakout is required before the continuation of the trend can be determined. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅Momentum Analysis (RSI) - ⚡The RSI indicator is hovering around 53.00, suggesting that bullish momentum is beginning to recover following a period of selling pressure. - ⚡The fact that the RSI has moved back above the 50 level indicates that buyers are gaining some short-term momentum. - ⚡However, this strengthening in the RSI is not yet sufficient to confirm a bullish continuation, as the price still faces significant resistance. Should the RSI fall back below 50, bearish pressure could intensify. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅Price Movement Projection - 🔴 Bearish Scenario: If the price faces rejection at the 0.7020–0.7040 resistance zone, AUD/USD could weaken again toward the 0.7000 support level, followed by a test of 0.6972. A breakdown and an H4 candle close below 0.6972 could open the door for a further decline toward the 0.6920–0.6940 demand area. - 🟢 Bullish Scenario: If the price manages to break out and close on the H4 timeframe above 0.7041, AUD/USD has the potential to continue its ascent toward the 0.7068 resistance level. A breakout above 0.7068 would strengthen the case for a bullish continuation and open the door for further gains toward 0.7100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Volume Profile Analysis - ⚡Based on the Visible Range Volume Profile, there is a significant concentration of trading volume around the 0.7000–0.7030 range, indicating that this area serves as a key zone of activity for market participants. - ⚡The price is currently situated within this high-volume zone, suggesting the potential for consolidation before the next impulsive move occurs. - ⚡If the price fails to break through the 0.7030–0.7041 resistance, selling pressure could intensify once again. Conversely, a breakout above this area could pave the way for an upward move toward the next resistance level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Conclusion The bias for AUD/USD on the H4 timeframe is NEUTRAL TO BEARISH, as the price remains below key resistance following a correction from the 0.7068 level. Although a technical rebound from the 0.6960–0.6972 demand area indicates an increase in buying pressure, the price has yet to confirm a structural shift to a bullish trend. Outlook: Sideways to Bearish Bearish confirmation: Rejection at 0.7020–0.7040 or an H4 close below 0.6972 Downside targets: 0.7000 → 0.6972 → 0.6940 Bullish confirmation: H4 close above 0.7041 Upside targets: 0.7068 → 0.7100 Bearish invalidation: H4 close above 0.7068 Trading Plan: Prioritize a "sell on rally" strategy if bearish price action confirmation appears at the 0.7020–0.7040 resistance zone. However, if the price manages to break out and hold above 0.7041, avoid aggressive selling, as the bullish momentum may potentially continue.