Executive SummaryShort-term holders have gone from nearly all in profit in early October to about 38% in profit, which leaves the market far less stretched than at the September high.Bitcoin is retesting the levels it broke above in August, with the True Market Mean at $77.7K and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $75.7K.The pullback cleared much of the long leverage built since August, while short positions have grown above price, with the largest cluster near $87K.Calls outweigh puts in the options market, and the largest December call positions sit between $80K and $120K.Spot volume has held at about 1.5x its pre-pump level, but the US spot ETFs saw nearly $1B in net outflows over the past two weeks.Bitcoin has held up against stocks over the past two months and now wins half its sessions against the S&P 500, a rate it has not been above since March 2025.The market absorbed the largest hack in crypto history with a dip of about 3%.Democrats won both chambers in the midterms. After past midterms, Bitcoin made one more drop; this time, most of the decline came before the vote.In altcoins, short-term holders now sell at a loss in most tokens, after selling at a profit in about 80% of them in late September.Ready to get ahead of markets and sharpen your foresight? Try Glassnode. Sign up or talk to sales.Explore the Market CompassA Healthier ResetAs recently as early October, almost every coin held by short-term holders, investors who bought within the past 155 days, was in profit. STH Supply in Profit sat at or above 97.5%, the zone we mark as the sell line, where nearly every recent buyer has a gain to take.After a pullback of about 10% from the September high, that share has fallen to about 38%, so most short-term holder coins are now held at a loss. The market is far less stretched than it was a month ago. Should the share recover above 50% while price holds, it would show newer buyers back in profit and regaining confidence.Live ChartRetesting the BreakoutBetween August and September, Bitcoin climbed back above a set of levels it had lost after the 2025 all-time high, among them the 200-day average, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (the average price paid by newer buyers) and the True Market Mean (the average cost basis of active investors). Last week we noted that price had held above the True Market Mean through both October sweeps. On November 3 it closed just below that level, now at $77.7K, and dipped to $76.1K overnight before moving back above.Retests like this are normal after a breakout: levels that took months to reclaim are now being tested from above. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $75.7K and the 50-week average sit just below. As long as Bitcoin holds above them, the structure built in August stays intact.Live ChartShorts Build OverheadThe liquidation heatmap models the prices at which leveraged futures positions would be forced to close. The slide from the September high ran through many of the long liquidation levels that had built up since August, which lowers the risk of a forced-selling cascade. What remains below price is a band between $73K and $76K, which lines up with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and the 200-day average, and a large block at $60K to $63K left behind by the August breakout.Above price, liquidation levels have grown over the past week, even as price fell about 3.5%. This suggests traders have been adding short positions into the decline. The largest overhead cluster sits near $87K, close to the September high. Should price turn higher, these shorts would have to buy back, which could add fuel to a move toward that level.Live ChartOptions Lean HigherThe two largest upcoming options expiries, on November 27 and December 25, hold $5.7B and $12.5B in open interest. Their max pain levels, the price at which the largest share of open options expires worthless, sit at $80K and $76K, on either side of spot, so the options market adds no clear pull in either direction.Across all expiries, traders hold about $18B in calls against $13B in puts. The largest December call positions sit at $80K, $90K, $100K and $120K, while the largest puts sit at $60K and below, as protection against a deep fall. This points to positioning for upside into year-end. Note that open interest does not show who bought and who sold: part of the call open interest is likely sold by holders to earn a premium, so not every call is a bet on higher prices.Live ChartVolume Holds UpSpot and ETF trading volume rose sharply with the August breakout and has cooled since, but not back to where it started. On a 7-day average, total volume now runs at about 1.5x its level from mid-July to mid-August, before the pump, and it has stayed above that level through the whole pullback.Note that volume is still low by the standards of the ETF era. Even so, a market that keeps trading at a higher pace through a 10% pullback suggests that the interest drawn in by the August move has not left.Live ChartThe ETFs Stay OutLittle of this volume comes from the US spot ETFs. Over the past two weeks, the funds saw nearly $1B in net outflows, including $640M on November 2. ETF trading has run at about $1.3B a day since May, around a third of its pace in the months before.We read this as a market driven by capital already inside crypto, moving between assets and venues, with little new money arriving from traditional investors. There is little sign of froth, or of interest from beyond crypto. Note that ETF flows have tended to follow price rather than lead it, so their absence is less of a warning for the next move than it may seem.Live ChartHolding Up Against StocksOver the past two months, Bitcoin is down about 2%. That is close to the S&P 500, which is down less than 1%, slightly ahead of European stocks and well ahead of gold, which lost about 9%. Bitcoin led stocks by a wide margin in early October and gave that lead back in the pullback, but it has corrected without falling behind traditional assets.Live ChartLevel With the S&P 500Over the last 90 trading sessions, Bitcoin has beaten the S&P 500 in half of them, and its average gain per session is now slightly higher. The win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won.A return to an even split ends a long stretch of underperformance. Should the win rate climb above 50% and hold there, it would show Bitcoin regaining strength against equities.Live ChartShrugging Off a Record HackOn October 29, Binance reported a hack that affected $6.3B in assets, by its own count. That makes it the largest hack in crypto history, larger than the next nine combined. Bitcoin dipped about 3% in the days that followed and is now back near the price at which the outflows began.A muted reaction to news this bad is a sign of strength. It does not change the lack of new demand from outside crypto that we see in the ETF data. Should that demand return, a market that has already absorbed a shock of this size has room to move quickly.Live ChartAfter the MidtermsIn the US midterm elections on November 3, Democrats won both the House and the Senate, a stronger result than expected. After each of the past three midterms, Bitcoin made one more drop before reaching its cycle low, falling between 15% and 50% within two to ten weeks of the vote. This time, much of the decline came before the vote: Bitcoin fell about 11% from its September high into election day and is up about 1.5% since.Over the longer term, the industry will have to adjust to a Democratic Congress. Note, though, that Bitcoin is now far more embedded in the traditional financial system than in past cycles, with banks, asset managers and the ETFs invested, which makes a change in Washington less of a threat than it would have been a few years ago. Three elections also make a small sample.Live ChartAltcoins Shake OutThe correction has gone deeper in altcoins. STH-SOPR measures whether short-term holders sell at a profit (above 1) or at a loss (below 1). In late September, short-term holders were selling at a profit in about 80% of the more than 300 tokens we track. By the end of October, that share had dropped to about 12%, and the typical token's short-term holders were selling at a small loss.Profit taking after a strong rally has turned into loss taking. Should Bitcoin hold its retest, an altcoin market cleared of recent profit takers is a better starting point than the crowded market of September.Live ChartConclusionBitcoin has worked off the excess of September: short-term holders have gone from nearly all in profit to mostly at a loss, altcoin holders are selling at a loss, and price is retesting its August breakout. Volume has held up and a record hack barely moved price, but new money from outside crypto is still missing.This offers a better balance of risk and reward than the September high did. The level to watch is the $73K to $76K band, where the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the 200-day average and a cluster of long liquidations meet. Should it hold, the retest would mark a healthy reset within the August uptrend. A sustained break below $73K would point to a longer consolidation.Data as of November 4, 2026, 11:00 UTC; ETF flows through November 2.Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for informational and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.