Written by: Vivek Mishra5 min readNov 4, 2026 01:14 PM IST First published on: Nov 4, 2026 at 01:12 PM ISTAmerican society is changing. The country appears to be departing from its traditional character, both as a society and as a power, amid rapid internal and external shifts. The second Donald Trump administration has proved to be the decisive inflection point for these changes. If Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, which defied expected voting patterns, expressed the wider American electorate’s desire for change, the midterm elections delivered a verdict on how that change is faring. All vectors point to an overall negative evaluation of Trump’s policies.The 2026 midterm elections look very different for the Republican Party from the presidential election of 2024, when the party’s mood was buoyant. Voters rallied behind Trump then because his promises resonated strongly: To reverse illegal immigration, to bring investment to America, to create jobs at home, and to end the “forever wars”. He also drew support from his image as a Washington outsider who would “drain the swamp”. His record on each of these promises has now been judged.AdvertisementThe standout reason for the blue wave was the administration’s failure to deliver on its promises. Even on immigration, where the administration has sharply reduced unauthorised border crossings, many Americans object to the methods used to achieve that end. The aggressive deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in American cities, for instance, is seen by many as a threat to civil liberties and domestic order rather than a guarantee of security. Similarly, Trump may have succeeded in pressing investors and foreign governments to commit capital to the United States, but investment does not translate directly into jobs. Job creation also depends on training and skills development, which take years, if not a generation, to bear fruit, even in the world’s largest economy.The single biggest backlash against the Trump administration in these midterms stems from the reversal of its campaign promise not to start new wars. The cost of the Iran war has landed squarely on American households, raising the prices of food, fuel, mortgages, farm inputs and travel. Trump’s decision to wage tariff wars on friends, partners and adversaries alike rested on the premise that other countries would foot America’s bill. The evidence now points the other way. A January 2026 study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, analysing some 25 million shipments worth nearly $4 trillion, found that US importers and consumers bore around 96 per cent of the tariff burden, with foreign exporters absorbing only about 4 per cent. Far from taxing other countries, the tariffs have proved an own goal, falling on the American economy.Also Read | In Israel, no coalition may last too longSome emerging voting patterns may offer insight into a degree of buyer’s remorse among Americans. The most telling contests are those in states Trump carried comfortably in 2024, where Republican seats should, in principle, be hardest for Democrats to win. Texas is the clearest example. No Democrat has won a Senate race there since 1988, yet James Talarico has defeated Ken Paxton with almost 55 per cent of the vote share. Similar victories are visible elsewhere. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown has wrested the seat for the Democratic party, defeating Jon Husted. Democrat Josh Turek has won the Iowa Senate race against Ashley Hinson. Alaska has produced unexpectedly competitive numbers and in Kansas, too, Democrat Adam Hamilton has delivered a decisive victory. Democratic gains in these states would be the strongest evidence that Trump’s 2024 coalition is fraying. Victories in North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan, which are swing states Trump won narrowly, show that Trump’s coattails have faded.AdvertisementDemocratic control of both houses of Congress could significantly alter the domestic course of the Trump presidency, not least because this has been a markedly executive-heavy administration. The power of the purse and the authority to conduct oversight give Congress formidable means to shape presidential decision-making. Yet, if one thing has withstood the test of time and circumstance during Trump’s second term, it is the executive’s remarkable capacity to tower over the legislature and, at times, the judiciary. The federal courts and the Supreme Court have on several occasions ruled against Trump’s combative use of executive power, most notably on birthright citizenship and on tariffs imposed under emergency powers. But Republican control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives has given the second Trump administration a carte blanche on most matters. If nothing else, Democratic control would test the structural resilience of the American legislature and of the broader architecture of checks and balances.Through the lens of foreign policy, the outcome of the midterms is unlikely to change how the Trump administration positions itself. That it struck Qeshm Island only hours before Americans went to the polls suggests that executive overreach in external affairs will continue. Even on trade and tariffs, countries would be mistaken to place their bets on the American legislature rather than on a pugnacious executive. If anything, the remaining years of the Trump presidency may take an even more virulent turn. His desire to go down in history as America’s greatest president has never been so brazenly displayed. Iran may be the case that combines the id, the ego, and the superego of this American president.The writer is Deputy Director, Strategic Studies Programme, ORF