XAUUSD Nov 5: Buy 4049-4053 retest, sell 4080-4085 D1 highGoldOANDA:XAUUSDToan_AlphaDAILY PLAN | XAUUSD Plan review Nov 4: neither scenario reached a TP yesterday. Price broke out of the 3895–3971 box and ran straight to 4070. Question of the day: was the break of the 4030–4051 range real or a fakeout? Real, so far. The H1 candle at 11:00 ET closed at 4066.45, well above the box top 4051.61. Since then pullbacks only reached 4055.36 and no H1 candle has closed back inside the box. Fakeouts usually pull price back in quickly; here buyers keep price above. The remaining test is a pullback to 4049–4053: if it holds, the old box top becomes support. Pattern: H1 range 4030–4051 broken to the upside; price is now coiling 4055–4070 above it. 1. Market structure - D1: the Nov 4 candle rallied from 3919.90 to 4070.43 and closed 4060.36, engulfing the prior two range days. The 3870.32 low (Oct 30) held. The nearest D1 high 4082.82 (Oct 28) is the next hurdle. - H4: clear higher highs and higher lows: lows 3919.90 → 3996.24 → 4029.12, highs 4009.70 → 4051.61 → 4070.43. H4 trend is up. - H1 & M15: after the 4070.43 high, price is ranging 4055–4070 with no lower low yet. Preferred view: BUY a pullback into 4049–4053 (with the H4 trend). SELL 4080–4085 is counter-trend and needs confirmation. 2. Key zones Resistance: 4080–4085: D1 high 4082.82. 4066–4070: highs 4067.81, 4070.36, 4070.43. Support: 4055–4059: coil lows 4055.36, 4057.45, 4059.07. 4049–4053: old box top 4049.52, 4051.61, 4051.87. 4029–4033: old box bottom 4030.53, 4029.12. 3. Main scenario Scenario 1: BUY 4049–4053 (with H4 trend) - Wait for a retest of the old box top. Trigger: H1 lower wick or bullish engulfing closing back above 4053. - Reference plan: Entry: 4049–4053 Stop Loss: 4040 TP1: 4067 | TP2: 4080 | TP3: 4102 R:R (from 4051): TP1 1:1.5 | TP2 1:2.6 | TP3 1:4.6 - TPs sit 2–3 points before resistance: below 4070, below 4082.8, below 4105. 4. Alternative scenario Scenario 2: SELL 4080–4085 (COUNTER-trend) - The D1 high 4082.82 may cap the first touch. Since this fades the H4 trend, a touch is not enough: require an H1 close below the last swing low of the leg into the zone. - Reference plan: Entry: 4080–4085 Stop Loss: 4093 TP1: 4062 | TP2: 4056 | TP3: 4034 R:R (from 4082): TP1 1:1.8 | TP2 1:2.4 | TP3 1:4.4 - At TP1 move SL to breakeven. 5. Invalidation and scenario switch - Scenario switch: H4 close below 4040 — price back inside the old box, breakout failed, drop the BUY, watch 4029–4033. - H4 close above 4093: drop the SELL, price may target 4105–4111. - If price runs to 4070 without pulling back to 4049–4053, do not chase. 6. Conclusion - Bias Nov 5: H4 up; prefer buying the pullback into the old box top; sell the D1 high only with confirmation. - Reduce size around US data releases. Check the spread before placing orders. - Lesson of the day: a freshly broken box top is the level most worth waiting for; chasing after a long candle pays more for the same opportunity. Note: This is a personal technical analysis view, not investment advice. Entry, SL and TP zones are for reference only. Traders should assess risk, manage capital and wait for confirmation before making decisions.