Donald Trump’s final two years in the White House are set to look very different after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the 2026 US midterm elections. But history shows that losing Congress does not necessarily mean the end of a president’s political influence.The American political landscape has shifted following the midterm elections held on Tuesday, 3rd November, with Democrats securing majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.The result marks a significant setback for President Donald Trump, whose Republican Party had controlled both chambers during the first half of his second term. Voter frustration over rising living costs, inflation and the ongoing war with Iran has been cited as a major factor behind the result.For Trump, the outcome means that passing legislation, securing appointments and implementing his domestic agenda could become considerably more difficult. However, he is far from the first American president to find himself in this position.From Bill Clinton to Barack Obama, several presidents have experienced major midterm defeats, with consequences ranging from government shutdowns and political gridlock to impeachment proceedings.So what happens now, and what can previous elections tell us about the next two years?What changes after the midterms?Unlike presidential elections, which take place every four years, US midterm elections are held halfway through a president’s term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are contested, alongside approximately one-third of the Senate’s 100 seats.While the president remains in office regardless of the outcome, control of Congress determines how easily an administration can turn its proposals into law. With Democrats set to control both chambers, Trump will face what is known as a divided government, where the president belongs to a different political party from the congressional majority.The newly elected Congress will take office on 3rd January 2027. Until then, Republicans retain their existing congressional majorities, creating a short window in which they may attempt to advance outstanding legislation.Once Democrats assume control, Trump will generally need their cooperation to pass major legislation, potentially complicating his plans on taxation, immigration, federal spending and economic policy.However, the president retains important powers, including the ability to veto legislation passed by Congress. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers, while executive orders remain available within the limits of existing law.Another significant change concerns presidential appointments. The Senate is responsible for confirming senior government officials, federal judges and members of important institutions, including the Federal Reserve. A Democratic-controlled Senate could therefore delay or reject nominees, giving the opposition greater influence over the administration’s remaining appointments.Could Democrats investigate Trump?One of the most significant consequences of the election could be increased congressional scrutiny of the administration.With control of both chambers, Democrats will be able to lead committees, organise hearings, request documents and investigate government decisions. These investigations could examine Trump’s economic policies, the war with Iran, government spending and other aspects of his administration.There is also the possibility of impeachment. The House of Representatives can impeach a president by a simple majority, but removing a president from office requires a two-thirds majority of senators present following a Senate trial.Therefore, even with Democratic majorities in both chambers, impeachment would not automatically result in Trump’s removal. Nevertheless, the opposition’s ability to investigate the White House could become a defining feature of his remaining time in office.What could this mean for the economy?The political consequences could extend well beyond Washington, with investors watching how the election affects US fiscal policy, financial markets and international relationships.A divided government can make it more difficult to introduce major tax or spending programmes. While this could limit additional government borrowing, it could also restrict the administration’s ability to respond quickly to an economic slowdown.Government funding negotiations could become another source of tension. With a funding deadline approaching on 11th December, lawmakers face the prospect of another confrontation over federal spending, although that deadline falls before the new Congress takes office. Failure to reach an agreement could trigger a partial government shutdown.Meanwhile, the war with Iran and its impact on global energy prices remain major concerns. Higher oil prices can increase transportation and production costs, contributing to inflation and putting pressure on household budgets.For European countries, including Malta, developments in the US economy can have wider implications through financial markets, trade, investment and energy prices. However, the election result itself does not determine the direction of inflation or economic growth, with much depending on monetary policy and international developments.Has this happened before?Yes, and on several occasions.Historically, the president’s political party has frequently lost congressional seats during midterm elections. Some defeats, however, have been particularly consequential, reshaping the relationship between the White House and Congress.1994: Bill Clinton loses both chambersTwo years into Bill Clinton’s first term, Republicans captured both the House and Senate, taking control of the House for the first time in four decades.The defeat led to fierce disputes over government spending, culminating in two federal government shutdowns during 1995 and early 1996. Nevertheless, Clinton eventually negotiated significant bipartisan agreements, including welfare reform and a balanced-budget deal, and went on to win re-election in 1996.His experience demonstrated that losing Congress can lead to political confrontation without necessarily preventing a president from achieving legislative compromises.2006: George W. Bush loses Congress amid the Iraq WarGrowing dissatisfaction with the Iraq War contributed to Democrats winning both chambers of Congress during George W. Bush’s second term.The day after the election, Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld resigned, while congressional scrutiny of the war intensified. Despite the setback, Bush retained considerable authority over foreign policy and ordered an increase in American troops in Iraq in 2007. The episode demonstrated that even when a president loses Congress, significant executive powers remain, particularly in foreign affairs.2010 and 2014: Barack Obama loses both chambers in separate electionsBarack Obama suffered a major setback in 2010 when Republicans gained 63 House seats, although Democrats retained control of the Senate.The resulting divided government produced repeated disputes over federal spending and borrowing, including the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, after which Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating.Four years later, Republicans also captured the Senate, leaving Obama facing an opposition-controlled Congress for the remainder of his presidency.One of the most consequential developments came in 2016, when the Republican-controlled Senate refused to consider Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court, leaving the vacancy to be filled during Trump’s first presidency.2018: Trump loses the House during his first presidencyTrump himself has already experienced a significant midterm defeat. During his first term, Democrats captured the House of Representatives while Republicans retained control of the Senate.The result gave Democrats greater investigative powers and the ability to block legislation. It also preceded Trump’s first impeachment in December 2019, following an investigation into his dealings with Ukraine.Trump was subsequently acquitted by the Republican-controlled Senate in February 2020.The 2018 election provides a particularly relevant comparison, although the 2026 result goes further by placing both chambers of Congress under Democratic control.What happens next for Trump?The historical examples suggest that Trump’s remaining two years could be characterised by a combination of political confrontation, legislative gridlock and occasional compromise.With Democrats controlling Congress from January, major policy changes will require negotiation, while disagreements over government spending and taxation could become increasingly difficult to resolve. Congressional investigations may also intensify, placing additional pressure on the administration.Trump could respond by placing greater emphasis on executive actions and foreign policy, areas where the president retains substantial authority, although these powers remain subject to legal and constitutional limits.Attention will also increasingly turn towards the 2028 presidential election. Under the 22nd Amendment, Trump cannot be elected president for a third term, meaning the final two years of his presidency will also be shaped by the contest to succeed him.For Democrats, controlling Congress provides an opportunity to challenge the administration and advance their own priorities. For Republicans, the defeat raises questions about the party’s future direction and how closely its next generation of leadership should remain aligned with Trump.The immediate priority, however, is the transition to the new Congress on 3rd January 2027. Until then, the outgoing Republican-controlled Congress may still attempt to advance legislation and reach agreements on government funding.History shows that an opposition-controlled Congress can produce confrontation, compromise or both. Clinton faced shutdowns but negotiated major reforms, Bush continued pursuing his military strategy, Obama encountered fiscal crises and appointment battles, while Trump himself faced investigations and impeachment after losing the House in 2018.The difference this time is that Trump will be entering the final two years of his presidency amid international conflict, economic uncertainty and a Congress controlled entirely by his political opponents. •