ERIKA SOLOMON2026年11月4日From pulpits at Friday prayers to street rallies, Iranian clerics and officials are increasingly urging the country’s leaders to reverse their longtime pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons.从周五礼拜时的布道讲坛到街头集会，越来越多的伊朗神职人员和官员呼吁国家领导人改变长期以来不寻求发展核武器的承诺。 This demand, once seen as a fringe position held by hard-liners, is moving into mainstream public debate, and the shift could have dramatic consequences for Iran, whose government has for decades argued that its nuclear program was solely for peaceful purposes.这一诉求过去被视为强硬派中的边缘立场，如今正逐渐进入主流公共讨论。这一转变可能给伊朗带来重大影响。几十年来，伊朗政府一直坚称，其核计划完全用于和平目的。“We must be equipped with nuclear weapons — so that we can fight the criminal America with strength, God willing,” Ali Sepahvand, the Friday prayer leader in Iran’s western city of Kuhdasht, said last week, according to a widely distributed video.据一段广泛传播的视频显示，上周，伊朗西部城市库赫达什特的周五礼拜领拜人阿里·塞帕万德说：“我们必须拥有核武器，这样才能在真主的保佑下，有力量对抗罪恶的美国。”As his voice echoed through a prayer hall, covered in photographs of commanders killed in the war with the United States and Israel this past year, the congregants chanted: “Nuclear deterrence is our inalienable right!”他的声音在挂满过去一年与美国和以色列战争中阵亡指挥官照片的礼拜堂里回荡，信众高呼：“核威慑是我们不可被剥夺的权利！”The growing calls for Iran to pursue nuclear weapons come as the country’s leaders engage in diplomatic efforts to stave off renewed war with the United States and Israel, an outcome widely considered likely after the American midterm elections on Tuesday.伊朗国内要求追求核武器的呼声日益高涨之际，该国领导人正开展外交努力，以避免与美国和以色列重新爆发战争——外界普遍认为，周二美国中期选举结束后，战争很可能再次爆发。For decades, Iran’s officials have publicly endorsed the fatwa, or religious edict, from its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which forbade the development and use of nuclear weapons. Issued in his capacity as the head of Iran’s theocratic state, his decree barred Iranian institutions, including the military and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, from pursuing a nuclear bomb.几十年来，伊朗官员一直公开支持最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊颁布的法特瓦（即宗教敕令），禁止研发和使用核武器。他以伊朗神权国家元首身份发布的这项法令禁止包括军队和伊斯兰革命卫队在内的伊朗机构研制核弹。 Yet at the same time, Western intelligence agencies in past years reported signs Iran was enriching uranium to levels close to those that could be used to develop a bomb. Some officials in Israel and the United States accused Iran of preparing to build one, regardless of the fatwa.然而，与此同时，西方情报机构过去几年曾报告，有迹象表明伊朗正在将铀浓缩至接近可用于制造核弹的丰度。以色列和美国的一些官员指责伊朗不顾这一宗教敕令，仍在为制造核弹做准备。To curb this threat, the United States and other world powers reached an agreement with Iran in 2015 to restrict its nuclear activities. Three years later, President Trump pulled out of that agreement.为遏制这一威胁，美国和其他世界大国于2015年与伊朗达成协议，限制其核活动。三年后，特朗普总统退出了该协议。2024年，阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊在德黑兰。他曾禁止伊朗发展和使用核武器。Ayatollah Khamenei’s strategy, regional analysts say, had been to keep Iran’s nuclear intentions ambiguous in hopes of deterring attacks on Iran without it actually becoming a nuclear power.地区分析人士表示，哈梅内伊的战略一直是让伊朗的核意图保持模糊，以期在不实际成为核大国的情况下威慑对伊朗的攻击。 But that approach failed to prevent the two wars Israel and the United States have waged against Iran since June 2025 — including the one in which Mr. Khamenei was himself killed in February.但这一做法未能阻止以色列和美国自2025年6月以来对伊朗发动的两场战争，其中包括今年2月导致哈梅内伊本人丧生的那场战争。“He created this neither in nor out situation, where they paid for a bomb they didn’t have,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst who edits the independent regional news site Amwaj.media. “Now, there is this sense that unless you have this ultimate weapon, you could end up at the mercy of not just the U.S., but Israel, at any point.”“他制造了一种既没有真正拥有核弹、又没有完全放弃核弹的局面，结果伊朗付出了拥核的代价，却没有真正拥有核弹，”独立地区新闻网站Amwaj.media的编辑、伊朗问题分析人士穆罕默德·阿里·沙巴尼说。“现在，人们越来越觉得，如果没有这种终极武器，伊朗随时可能任由美国甚至以色列摆布。”President Trump’s own comments may strengthen this assessment, analysts say.分析人士表示，特朗普总统本人的言论可能进一步强化这种判断。“If they had a nuclear weapon, I’d be calling the Supreme Leader and I’d be saying, ‘Mr. Supreme Leader, how are you, sir? Is there anything we can do for you?’ As opposed to bombing the crap out of him,” Mr. Trump said at the Republican midterm convention in September.“如果他们拥有核武器，我会打电话给最高领袖，我会说：‘最高领袖先生，您好吗，先生？我们能为您做些什么吗？’而不是把他炸得稀巴烂，”特朗普在9月共和党中期选举大会上说。 Inside Iran, calls for withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or N.P.T., which prohibits development of a nuclear weapon, have been growing ever since Israel and the United States attacked in 2025.在伊朗国内，自2025年以色列和美国发动攻击以来，要求退出《不扩散核武器条约》的呼声不断高涨。该条约禁止发展核武器。 In recent weeks, an increasing number of Iranian political and religious figures have added their voices to this chorus, suggesting to some Iran analysts that there is an effort orchestrated, or at least enabled, by the country’s leadership.最近几周，越来越多的伊朗政治和宗教人物加入了这一行列。一些伊朗问题分析人士因此认为，这股舆论浪潮可能由伊朗领导层组织推动，至少也是在其默许下形成的。It is unclear whether serious debate over Iran’s nuclear doctrine has reached the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. But on Saturday, Iran’s top national security figure, Mohsen Rezaei, said in an interview on state television that Iran’s leaders were discussing it.目前尚不清楚关于伊朗核政策的严肃讨论是否已进入新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的决策层面。但周六，伊朗最高国家安全官员穆赫辛·雷扎伊在接受国家电视台采访时表示，伊朗领导人正在讨论这一问题。“No new decision has been made yet,” he said. “Of course, the debate now is whether we want to keep the same doctrine we had before the war, if war breaks out again.”“目前还没有作出新的决定，”他说。“当然，现在讨论的是，如果再次爆发战争，我们是否还要坚持战前的核政策。”Advocating for withdrawal from the N.P.T. was once a minority position within Iran’s leadership, said Mohammad Ghaderi, a foreign affairs expert in Tehran.德黑兰外交事务专家穆罕默德·加德里说，主张退出《不扩散核武器条约》曾是伊朗领导层中的少数派立场。Now, he argued, it is becoming a majority view. “They argue that if the military threats from the United States and Israel persist, withdrawing from the N.P.T. represents a crucial step toward establishing deterrence,” he said.他认为，如今这正在成为多数派意见。“他们主张，如果来自美国和以色列的军事威胁持续存在，退出《不扩散核武器条约》就是建立威慑的关键一步，”他说。伊朗国家安全顾问穆赫辛·雷扎伊今年7月在德黑兰。他表示，伊朗领导人正在讨论是否改变伊朗的核原则。 Mohammed Salem/ReutersRaising the nuclear prospect at a time when Iran could be at the cusp of another possible attack by the United States or Israel may itself be a strategy, said Omid Memarian, an Iran analyst at DAWN, a Washington-based Middle East research group.华盛顿中东研究机构DAWN的伊朗问题分析人士奥米德·梅马里安表示，在伊朗可能即将再次遭到美国或以色列攻击之际，提出发展核武器的可能性本身也可能是一种策略。Mr. Rezaei’s entry into the debate, while Qatar has been leading intensive mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran, may be an attempt to push the United States to reach a deal, Mr. Memarian said.梅马里安说，在卡塔尔正积极斡旋华盛顿与德黑兰之间的谈判之际，雷扎伊加入这场讨论可能是为了向美国施压，促使其达成协议。“They are playing with this card: If the negotiation fails, we will seek a different path, and it will be costly for you,” he said.“他们在打这张牌：如果谈判失败，我们将寻求另一条道路，而这对你们来说代价高昂，”他说。Especially notable has been the number of Friday prayer leaders adding their voices to the calls and effectively challenging the late ayatollah’s fatwa.尤其值得注意的是，越来越多的周五礼拜领拜人加入呼吁，这实际上是在挑战已故哈梅内伊颁布的宗教敕令。“The taboo is gone,” said Mr. Shabani. “A religious foundation for the shift is here. The question is whether a strategic or political shift will follow.”“禁忌已经消失，”沙巴尼说。“转变的宗教基础已经存在。问题是，战略或政治转变是否会随之而来。”Some of Iran’s leading reformist figures, like the president Masoud Pezeshkian and former president Hassan Rouhani, continue to back Iran’s peaceful nuclear doctrine.伊朗一些主要改革派人物，如总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬和前总统哈桑·鲁哈尼，继续支持伊朗的和平核原则。 In Iran’s leading reformist newspaper, Shargh, a former diplomat, Kourosh Ahmadi, warned this week that abandoning that doctrine poses grave risks. The plethora of pro-weapon statements from prominent figures, he said, “is dangerous because it makes the work of officials trying to prevent another war more difficult.”本周，伊朗主要改革派报纸《东方报》刊登了前外交官库鲁什·艾哈迈迪的警告。他指出，放弃这一政策将带来严重风险。他说，知名人士发表的支持核武的言论层出不穷，“十分危险，因为这会让那些试图阻止另一场战争的官员更加难以开展工作”。 And until Iran could manage to build a bomb, he argued, the chances of being attacked would actually increase.他还认为，在伊朗真正制造出核弹之前，这种转变反而会增加其遭到攻击的可能性。After U.S. and Israeli strikes wiped out most of Iran’s top leadership and battered its infrastructure, it is harder for critics of the nuclear option to make their case, said Sina Toossi, an Iran expert at the Center for International Policy, a Washington-based think tank.华盛顿智库国际政策中心的伊朗问题专家西纳·图西表示，美国和以色列的空袭清除了伊朗大部分高层领导人，并重创其基础设施之后，反对发展核武器的人如今更难说服其他人接受自己的立场。“The central problem for advocates of restraint is explaining what Iran gained from remaining below the nuclear threshold,” he said.“主张克制的人面临的核心问题是，他们如何解释伊朗坚持不越过核门槛，究竟得到了什么好处，”他说。At the same time, he said, a new round of U.S. attacks “could strengthen the very arguments for the nuclear weapons that Washington says it wants to prevent.”与此同时，他指出，美国如果再次发动攻击，“反而可能强化伊朗国内支持发展核武器的理由，而这恰恰是华盛顿声称要阻止的”。At public prayers in Tehran on Friday, the prayer leader, Mohammad Javad Haj Ali Akbari, declared that changing Iran’s nuclear doctrine was “a national demand,” according to a video posted on social media.根据社交媒体上发布的一段视频，周五在德黑兰的公开礼拜中，领拜人穆罕默德·贾瓦德·哈吉·阿里·阿克巴里宣布，改变伊朗的核政策已成为“全国性的诉求”。His congregants immediately responded with a refrain common at government-sponsored rallies from decades past: “Nuclear energy is our inalienable right!”参加礼拜的民众立即高喊一句几十年来经常出现在政府组织的集会上的口号：“核能是我们不可被剥夺的权利！” “This is an old slogan,” he told them, and smiled: “We have gone way beyond that.”“这是老口号了，”他微笑着对众人说：“我们已经远远超越了那个阶段。”Leily Nikounazar和Sanam Mahoozi对本文有报道贡献。Erika Solomon是《纽约时报》伊朗和伊拉克分社社长。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。