BCV Reports 3rd Straight Month of Single-Digit Inflation in Venezuela

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Caracas (OrinocoTribune.com)—On Tuesday, Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Rodríguez reported that monthly inflation had slowed to 6.2% in October. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) confirmed the figure on Wednesday and noted that it was the lowest monthly rate of 2026. Inflation has remained in single digits for three consecutive months after registering 8.9% in August and 8.4% in September, according to the BCV.The slower monthly rate does not mean prices fell. The figures in the table below show prices rose 245.5% from January through October, while interannual inflation reached 376.9%.The IMF’s October 2026 forecast projects average consumer price inflation of 467.9% for Venezuela in 2026, the highest projected rate worldwide. However, an inflation reduction trend is visible in the interanual inflation despite the devastating effects of the June 24 earthquakes leading to an inaccurate IMF forecast.MonthMonthly inflationCumulative inflation, January onwardInterannual inflationOctober6.2%245.5%376.9%September8.4%225.5%465.6%August8.9%200.2%534.2%July19.9%175.7%576.0%June13.8%129.9%544.1%May6.3%102.1%524.5%April10.6%90.0%611.9%March13.1%71.9%649.5%February14.6%52.0%617.9%January32.6%32.6%594.8% Prices and purchasing powerThe BCV attributed October’s result to coordination with the national government, progress toward restoring fiscal balance, fiscal discipline, the normalization of external income flows, and increased tax collection. Rodríguez, meanwhile, credited higher production and greater use of installed capacity alongside increased consumption. She said Venezuelans’ purchasing capacity had risen by 23% over the past year. The acting president made the comments at the Conindustria Congress.For people paid in bolivars—including workers whose income is calculated against a US-dollar reference—prices that continue to rise still erode purchasing power. Many informal transactions also use the dollar as a pricing reference, making the exchange-rate differential between the official rate and the parallel USDT market a significant source of price distortion.Exchange-rate gap and US pressureSome Venezuelan analysts have linked the early-year inflation spike and exchange-market turmoil to the US naval and oil blockade imposed in December 2025 and the January 3 US bombing and abduction of President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores.Misión Verdad reported that the average gap between the official BCV rate and USDT narrowed from 65.7% in January to 11.7% in October. It attributed the narrowing to increased BCV currency-market intervention and a faster upward adjustment of the official rate. Its analysis also notes that tight credit conditions constrain businesses’ ability to finance production.Inflation by sectorEducation services was the only sector to register a double-digit increase in October, at 10%. Prices also rose above the 6.2% overall rate for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (7.3%), transportation (7.1%), clothing and footwear (7.0%), and restaurants and hotels (6.4%).Economy and Finance VP: Venezuela Will Continue External Debt Restructuring ProcessBelow the overall rate, health rose 6.0%; food and non-alcoholic beverages, 5.7%; recreation and culture, 5.6%; housing services excluding telephone, communications, and miscellaneous goods and services, 5.2% each; and household equipment, 5.1%. The smallest increase was recorded for housing rentals, at 4.0%.  Special for Orinoco Tribune by staffOT/JRE/SL