(Oil & Gas 360) – Oil prices climbed more than $2 per barrel Thursday as investors reassessed the outlook for the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, while renewed attacks on vessels in the Persian Gulf raised concerns about the security of global petroleum supplies.Brent crude futures increased $2.30, or 2.43%, to $96.92 per barrel by 11:43 a.m. Eastern, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $2.15, or 2.44%, to $90.27.The rebound followed Wednesday’s sharp selloff, when both benchmarks declined more than 8% to their lowest settlement levels since August 31. Brent settled at $94.62, while WTI closed at $88.12.The earlier decline reflected expectations that Democratic victories in the U.S. midterm elections could increase political pressure on President Donald Trump to pursue a negotiated resolution to the Iran conflict.However, analysts cautioned that the election results do not immediately change U.S. foreign policy, particularly because the new Democratic-controlled Congress will not take office until January.Meanwhile, security concerns intensified around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for Middle Eastern crude oil and liquefied natural gas.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire after attempting to use unauthorized shipping routes. At least five vessels have reported incidents in the Gulf since Sunday, according to Reuters.Despite these developments, crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to nearly prewar levels, although transportation costs remain elevated.The recovery in Gulf exports has contributed to improving global oil balances.JPMorgan estimated that the global petroleum market returned to a surplus of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day in September, increasing to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.Nevertheless, inventories remain an important vulnerability. Commercial petroleum stocks in major consuming countries are near their lowest levels in 15 years, according to energy consultancy XAnalysts.The U.S. Energy Information Administration also reported declines in crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories last week as petroleum demand reached its highest level in a year.Political risk assessments continue to reflect substantial uncertainty.Eurasia Group reduced its estimated probability of renewed U.S. strikes against Iran to 60% from 65%, while lowering the probability of a negotiated agreement to 10% from 20%. The firm increased its estimated probability of a prolonged standoff to 30%.Eurasia Group warned that renewed escalation could lift Brent crude into a range of $110 to $125 per barrel.For energy investors, the contrasting signals reinforce the importance of monitoring physical supply, inventory levels and geopolitical developments together.Higher crude prices could support upstream cash flow while increasing feedstock costs for refiners and potentially pressuring consumer fuel demand.The direction of oil markets will depend on whether diplomatic progress reduces shipping risks or renewed hostilities disrupt the recovery in Middle Eastern petroleum exports.Disclaimer This informational, opinion, and insights article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available information and market conditions at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice.