PETER BAKER2026年11月4日“我不在选票上，因为我不在选票上，我们无法让足够多的人出来投票，”特朗普周二晚在接受《纽约时报》采访时表示。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesPresident Trump implored voters over the course of the midterm campaign to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” He said it not once, not twice, but 47 times this fall.在整个中期选举竞选期间，特朗普总统恳求选民“就当我在选票上”。这个秋天，这样的话他说了不是一次两次，而是47次。And voters did — just not the way he hoped.选民确实照做了，只是并非以他希望的方式。The Democratic wave in the congressional elections on Tuesday amounted to a stinging rebuke of a deeply unpopular president after more than a decade in which he has dominated the national stage. More than any of his predecessors, Mr. Trump deliberately made the midterm contest a referendum on himself, only to pay the price.周二国会选举中的民主党浪潮是对一位不受欢迎的总统的尖锐否定。此前的十多年里，他主导了国家政治舞台。特朗普比任何一位前任都更刻意地将中期选举变成对他本人的公投，结果却付出了代价。The electoral backlash extended even into deep red states and indicated that Mr. Trump has lost his hold over the coalition that lifted him to the White House twice. Frustrated by high gas prices, an intractable war with Iran and allegations of flagrant profiteering by Mr. Trump and members of his circle, voters who previously took a chance on an outsider promising change either rejected his party or stayed home.选举反弹甚至延伸到了深红州，表明特朗普已失去对那个两次将他送入白宫的联盟的掌控。高油价、与伊朗的棘手战争以及对特朗普及其圈子成员公然牟取暴利的指控令选民不满，这些选民此前冒险支持一位承诺变革的局外人，如今要么拒绝了他的政党，要么选择不投票。As of early Wednesday morning, the Democratic margin of victory in the overall national vote for House seats was expected to be about 13 percentage points, the largest that either party has lodged in a congressional election since at least 1976, according to estimates by The New York Times. It will dwarf even the margins that the Republicans won in their two big landslide victories of modern times when they defeated congressional Democrats when Bill Clinton held the White House in 1994 and Barack Obama was president in 2010.据《纽约时报》估算，截至周三凌晨，民主党在全国众议院席位总投票中的获胜优势预计约为13个百分点，这是至少自1976年以来两党中任何一党在国会选举中取得的最大优势。这甚至超过了共和党在现代两次压倒性胜利中的优势，1994年比尔·克林顿任内和2010年巴拉克·奥巴马任内，共和党两次击败了国会民主党人。Thanks to redistricting, that margin may not translate into as many seats as the winners gained in those watershed years. Gerrymandered House districts leave far fewer seats available for poaching by the other party than in the past. But the overall margin of Democratic victory indicates that while the president has two more years left in office and can still wield power to great effect, Americans are signaling the beginning of the end of the Trump era.由于重新划分选区，这一优势可能不会转化为像那些分水岭年份获胜者所获得的那么多席位。不公正划分的众议院选区留给另一党争夺的席位远少于过去。但民主党的胜选总体优势表明，尽管总统任期还剩两年、仍能运用巨大的权力，美国人正在发出特朗普时代开始终结的信号。周二，在得克萨斯州达拉斯市，人们聚集在得州共和党参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿的选举夜观票派对上，观看中期选举结果。“It’s basically a repudiation of Trump and the Republicans and what they’ve done for the last two years,” said Douglas B. Sosnik, who was White House political director for Mr. Clinton and closely tracked the races this fall. “I do think starting tomorrow, we’re in this new phase and it’s a transition phase and it will last two years. And it will be much more volatile than the last two years.”“这基本上是对特朗普、共和党人以及他们过去两年所作所为的否定，”密切关注今秋选情的前克林顿白宫政治主任道格拉斯·B·索斯尼克说。“我确实认为，从明天开始，我们将进入一个新阶段，一个过渡阶段，持续两年。而且它将比过去两年更加动荡。”Mr. Trump quickly tried to save face by insisting that the rout by Democrats was not really a rejection of him since he was not actually on the ballot — never mind that he told voters repeatedly to vote as if he were.特朗普迅速试图挽回面子，坚称共和党的溃败并非真正对他的否定，因为他实际上不在选票上——全然不顾他曾反复告诉选民要像他在选票上那样投票。“I wasn’t on the ticket, and because I wasn’t on the ticket, we couldn’t get enough people out to vote,” he told The Times in an interview Tuesday night.“我不在选票上，因为我不在选票上，我们无法让足够多的人出来投票，”他在周二晚间的一次采访中告诉《纽约时报》。Even many Republicans would roll their eyes at that assertion, as this was a campaign that revolved so demonstrably around Mr. Trump.甚至许多共和党人也会对这种说法翻白眼，因为这是一场如此明显地围绕特朗普展开的竞选。It was Mr. Trump who decided to start a war with Iran that jolted energy markets and sent prices at the pump soaring. It was Mr. Trump who chose the candidates, the issues, the strategy and the message.是特朗普决定发动一场搅动能源市场、推高油价的伊朗战争。是特朗普选定了候选人、议题、策略和信息。It was Mr. Trump who demanded complete loyalty from a party whose candidates were nervous about distancing themselves from him. And it was Mr. Trump who has shrugged off questions about the ethics of his moneymaking in office, helping propel voter concerns about corruption.是特朗普要求一个其候选人对于与他保持距离感到紧张的政党给予完全忠诚。也是特朗普对有关他在任内牟利的道德问题不屑一顾，助推了选民对腐败的担忧。The defeat of two Senate Republican candidates that he personally selected over potentially more electable contenders in deep red states — Ken Paxton in Texas and Darline Graham in South Carolina — demonstrated the consequences of his interventions. His push to throw out the normal process and redraw House districts in the middle of the decade to try to stack the deck for Republicans backfired.在深红州，两名由他亲自挑选的共和党参议员候选人——得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿与南卡罗来纳州的达琳·格雷厄姆——双双落败，说明了他干预的后果，这两个州原本有胜算更高的竞争者。他推动抛弃正常程序、在十年周期的中途重新划分众议院选区以试图为共和党人制造不公平优势，结果适得其反。南卡罗来纳州罗克希尔市的罗克希尔体育与活动中心，特朗普总统与该州共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆在竞选集会上。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesMany voters told pollsters and interviewers that they felt hoodwinked by Mr. Trump, believing that he was going to bring down prices and not start new wars. They expected him to close the border, but bristled at what they saw as heavy-handed arrests of people living in the country for years. They rebelled against the tariffs that increased costs for consumers.许多选民告诉民意调查员和采访者，他们感到被特朗普愚弄了：他们本以为他会降低物价，而不是发动新战争。他们期望他关闭边境，却对他所看到的、对居住在该国多年的人实施粗暴逮捕感到愤怒。他们反对那些增加了消费者成本的关税。The way Mr. Trump spent his last day before the election proved to be a metaphor for how out of sync his political instincts were with the season. Instead of emphasizing plans to address the cost of living worries weighing on many voters, he delivered his final pre-election address at the Reflecting Pool, talking about algae and pipes. It was a vivid reminder of his obsession with pet construction projects in Washington, despite the warning signs of how it rankled voters — as if Richard M. Nixon had made his final pre-election speech in front of the Watergate complex.特朗普在选举前最后一天的日程显示了他的政治本能与当前情势何其脱节。他没有强调解决许多选民所感受到的生活成本担忧的计划，而是在倒影池发表选前最后的讲话，谈论藻类和管道。这生动地提醒人们，尽管有警告信号表明这如何激怒选民，他却痴迷于自己心爱的华盛顿建设项目——就像理查德·M·尼克松在水门综合大楼前发表了他最后的选前演讲一样。Even if Trumpism may be receding, Mr. Trump has the power of the presidency for two more years and will do everything he can to remain a dominant voice for as long as he can. His allies warned against assuming that he is a spent force.即使特朗普主义可能正在消退，特朗普仍掌握两年的总统权力，并将尽其所能，尽可能长久地保持主导性声音。他的盟友警告说，不要以为他已经是过眼云烟。“Trump’s critics have written his political obituary before and been wrong every time,” said David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, a group that promotes conservative economic policies.“特朗普的批评者以前写过他的政治讣告，但每次都错了，”增长俱乐部(Club for Growth)主席戴维·麦金托什说。该组织倡导保守经济政策。“The fix is Republicans getting back to our principles,” he added. “That’s how we win in 2028.”“解决办法是共和党人回归我们的原则，”他补充说。“这就是我们在2028年的取胜之法。”There is, of course, a natural tendency to draw great lessons from a big midterm wave, to assume that it represents a fundamental shift in the American electorate. It certainly may. But history has seen plenty of examples when it did not last long. And it remains to be seen whether Tuesday’s results signal a broader ideological shift among voters.当然，人们自然而然地有种倾向，想从一场中期选举大浪潮中汲取重大教训，假定它代表了美国选民的根本性转变。这当然有可能。但历史上也有很多例子表明这种转变并未持续多久。周二的结果是否标志着选民中更广泛的意识形态转变仍有待观察。The post-Watergate wave of 1974 was thought to presage a long winter in the political wilderness for Republicans, but Ronald Reagan brought the party back to the White House just six years later. The 1994 and 2010 Republican sweeps were expected to presage the end of the Clinton and Obama presidencies, but both came back to win re-election handily two years later.1974年水门事件后的浪潮被认为预示着共和党在政治荒野中的漫长寒冬，但罗纳德·里根仅六年后就带领该党重返白宫。1994年和2010年的共和党横扫被认为预示着克林顿和奥巴马总统任期的终结，但两人在两年后都轻松赢得连任。Lynn Vavrek, a professor of American politics and public policy at the University of California, Los Angeles, said the most important factor in the election was sky-high gas prices so it may not follow that the country’s political character has profoundly changed.加州大学洛杉矶分校美国政治与公共政策教授林恩·瓦夫雷克说，选举中最重要的因素是极高的汽油价格，因此可能并不意味着美国政治特性已经发生深刻变化。“It doesn’t mean the MAGA coalition is crumbling,” she said. “Does it mean the shine has come off Donald Trump a little bit? Yes. Are people less enamored of him? I think the answer to that is yes.” But she said it does not necessarily mean that Republicans are going to abandon the “identity-inflected policies” on issues like immigration and diversity that have animated the party under Mr. Trump.“这并不意味着MAGA联盟正在瓦解，”她说。“唐纳德·特朗普的光环是否有所褪去？是的。人们是否不那么迷恋他了？我认为答案是肯定的。”但她表示，这并不一定意味着共和党将放弃在移民和多元化等问题上“带有身份色彩的政策”，这些政策在特朗普任内一直在调动共和党人的情绪。This is, after all, a fundamentally altered party, one that Mr. Trump forged in his own image, empowering those who defer to him and purging those who exhibit independence. “We don’t know how the president’s going to react, but thus far we’ve only seen members of his party acquiesce to him,” said Christina M. Greer, a political science professor at Fordham University.毕竟，这是一个从根本上改变了的政党，一个特朗普按照自己的形象锻造的政党：赋予那些顺从他的人权力，清除那些表现出独立性的人。“我们不知道总统会如何反应，但到目前为止，我们只看到他党内的成员默许他，”福特汉姆大学政治学教授克里斯蒂娜·M·格里尔说。特朗普总统周一在华盛顿倒影池发表讲话。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesJoe Grogan, who served as Mr. Trump’s domestic policy adviser in his first term, said that regardless of the election results, the president has changed the political landscape by advancing issues that were not adequately addressed enough before, like pushing for better trade deals and securing greater military spending by NATO allies. The party, he said, is not moving back to what it once was.乔·格罗根曾在特朗普第一任期担任其国内政策顾问，他说无论选举结果如何，总统都通过推进此前未得到充分解决的问题改变了政治格局，比如推动更好的贸易协议和确保北约盟国增加军费开支。他说，共和党不会回到过去的样子。“We’re still in Trump’s party, regardless of what happens tonight,” Mr. Grogan, now at Covington & Burling, said before the polls closed. “People who expect Trumpism to get repudiated I think are mistaken. There will be some debates that I think will be healthy for the party. But I just don’t see there being a huge wellspring for the party to go back to the one that George W. Bush led for two successful elections.”“无论今晚发生什么，我们仍然在特朗普的政党里，”现就职于科文顿·柏灵律师事务所的格罗根在投票结束前说。“那些期望特朗普主义被否定的人，我认为是错的。将会有一些辩论，我认为这对党是健康的。但我始终没看到有巨大的动力在让党回到过去，就是在乔治·W·布什领导下两次成功胜选的那个共和党。”At the same time, Democrats will debate how to interpret their victory. Their main identity this year was simply being against Mr. Trump, which was more than enough. But progressives will say that it was energy on the left that powered the success, while moderates will say it was the appeal to disaffected Republicans in states like Texas and Kansas that was crucial.与此同时，民主党人将就如何解读他们的胜利展开辩论。他们今年的主要身份仅仅是反对特朗普，而这已经足够了。但进步派会说，是左翼的能量推动了成功；温和派则会说，对得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州等州心怀不满的共和党人的吸引力才是关键。“The biggest story is non-MAGA Republicans have broken with the Republican Party,” said Rahm Emanuel, a former Democratic Chicago mayor and ambassador exploring a run for president. “The question is do we want to make this election transactional or transformational? What we do in 2027 will determine that.”“最重要的是非MAGA共和党人已经与共和党决裂，”拉姆·伊曼纽尔说。这位前民主党芝加哥市长和大使正在考虑竞选总统。“问题是，我们想让这次选举是利益交换性的还是变革性的？我们在2027年的所作所为将决定这一点。”James Blanchard, who was first elected to Congress in the post-Watergate Democratic sweep of 1974 and later served as governor of Michigan, said this year’s election felt similar to that historic year. But he said that does not mean that American politics will return to the way they were before Mr. Trump. “We can never go back, unfortunately,” he said. “We’re going to have to go forward.”詹姆斯·布兰查德在1974年水门事件后民主党浪潮中首次当选国会议员，后来担任密歇根州州长。他说今年的选举感觉与那个历史性年份相似。但他表示，这并不意味着美国政治将回到特朗普之前的状态。“不幸的是，我们永远无法回去，”他说。“我们将不得不向前走。”“It’s the end of Trump,” he added, “even though he’s still going to be there."“这是特朗普的终结，”他补充说，“尽管他仍将在那里。”Peter Baker是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者。特朗普是他报道的第六任美国总统，有时他也撰写将总统和美国政府置于更宏观的背景和历史框架下的分析性文章。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。