A midterm election lesson for Silicon Valley

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The US midterm election results are here and the Democrats will take control of both the House and the Senate early next year. It will be interesting to see how President Donald Trump conducts in the remaining two years of his term.Silicon Valley spent two years acting as though political power could be bought wholesale. On Tuesday, American voters sent back the invoice. Prices and the Iran war drove the wave.AdvertisementBut for technology, the deeper message is this: AI’s scarcest input is no longer chips, capital or talent. It is public permission. The evidence is hard to dismiss. In NBC’s exit poll, 56 per cent called AI and data centres a crucial or major factor in their vote. Voters opposed data centres in all but one of 41 related local measures across 10 states. Democrats spent more than $100 million on ads tying opponents to Big Tech and data centres.The industry misread its own opponents. It talked about superintelligence and geopolitical destiny, while voters looked at their electricity bills. In a Consumer Reports survey, 81 per cent of long-term residents said bills had risen. Telling such people, as Donald Trump did, that resisting data centres meant ending up “backwards and poor” was never likely to persuade them.However caution is warranted. Heatmap notes that data centres did not decide every race, Republican data centre supporter Byron Donalds won Florida’s governorship, and Ohio’s manufacturers reject the claim of a cost crisis. Wave elections also flatter every grievance. Even so, the direction of political incentives has changed.AdvertisementAlso money offered little protection. Elon Musk put $474 million behind Republicans, and big AI donors backed away as the backlash grew. The industry’s response so far is revealing: OpenAI reportedly wants to rebrand data centres as “AI compute campuses”, while Meta builds a bipartisan team. Better branding and better lobbying will treat this as a messaging failure. It is really a distribution failure: The gains flow to a few, while the costs land on neighbours. Wall Street grasped the irony first. Tech giants added about $750 billion on the bet that construction curbs would make existing capacity scarcer and restrain spending. Microsoft gained nearly 6.7 per cent, while Vistra lost 15.4 per cent and GE Vernova 11.5 per cent.This should trouble the victors. A revolt against concentrated tech power could end up entrenching it. That is the strongest argument against blanket moratoriums, alongside the warning that slowing American buildouts helps China. Populists who freeze construction may gift the incumbents a moat. Rules that make every project pay its true cost would be harder to game.Texas shows why this is bigger than party politics. The state holds about 27 per cent of planned US capacity, and governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has promised to ban approvals until lawmakers act. But Republican Greg Abbott had already paused permits, and Republicans kept the legislature. When a governor who called Texas the “epicenter of AI development” is the one who hits the brakes, the industry’s problem is not one party. It is geography, grids and water.Washington will now bring theatre before law. Senate Democrats have sent document preservation letters ahead of expected investigations, Greg Casar wants AI chiefs testifying under oath, and a select committee has been proposed. Legislation is harder, as sweeping law needs Trump’s signature or veto-proof support. The industry’s dream of overriding state AI laws looks remote, while Democrats remain split between populists and those favouring investment. Time warns they could also face a backlash of their own.My prediction is that the durable settlement will be modest: Data centres pay for their own power, with disclosure on safety and siting. Trump has already pressed companies to pay their own way, so common ground exists. Smart firms should volunteer binding commitments now, before angrier versions are imposed. In this industry, the cheapest regulation is the one negotiated before the hearing.For India, relief would be the wrong reading. The urgency of a trade deal has faded, according to a new report, and the February framework’s 18 per cent rate never took effect. Most Indian goods now face a 10 per cent duty instead. US Secretary of State Rubio calls a deal “very close”, but the USTR’s office sounds less sure. The remaining risks are sharp: Section 232 tariffs on pharma and electronics, and renewed pressure over Russian oil. New Delhi should neither rush to hand Trump a trophy nor stall on the assumption that pressure has gone.On H-1Bs, Indians receive roughly 70 per cent of approvals, yet parts of the Democrats’ labour wing want their own overhaul. Congress may check the White House, but it will not become the Indian techie’s champion. For Indian software, the graver threat is the technology itself, not any visa rule.you may likeThe more interesting question is where the next data centre goes. If Texas and Ohio grow costlier, some capital may look abroad, and India could compete with reliable power, water and clear rules. The Union budget provisions this year to give tax holidays to AI data centres till 2047 is a good step in that direction.But it should learn from America’s mistake rather than merely profit from it. Land, water and tariffs are intensely local issues in India too. A state that hands out sweetheart deals today could be inviting its own Ohio tomorrow. The AI boom assumed that whoever built fastest would win. The mid term results suggested a harder rule. Whoever builds with consent gets to keep building. That lesson applies in Texas, and it applies equally in Tamil Nadu or Telangana. The cautious journey has to begin here too.The writer is a defence and tech policy adviser and author of The Digital Decades: On 30 Years of the Internet in India