ERICA L. GREEN2026年9月3日周二晚上，特朗普总统在一条社交媒体帖子中表示，他“完全不在乎”与伊朗达成任何协议。在此数小时前，美国发动了一次打击行动。 Demetrius Freeman for The New York TimesAs the on-again, off-again war in Iran flares up again, President Trump seems bogged down in a conflict that he cannot control or move past, despite his declarations of total victory.随着打打停停的伊朗战争再度升级，特朗普总统似乎陷入了一场他既无法控制、也无法脱身的冲突之中，尽管他一再宣称已经取得全面胜利。On Tuesday night, after the latest exchange of fire over control of the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump called on the Iranian people to rise up — something he did at the outset of the war six months ago, before he acknowledged that his command was easier said than done.周二晚间，在双方围绕霍尔木兹海峡控制权再次交火后，特朗普呼吁伊朗人民起来反抗——六个月前战争刚爆发时，他也曾发出过同样的呼吁，后来他承认，下令让伊朗人起义说起来容易做起来却很难。In a social media post, Mr. Trump also brushed off the stalled negotiations with Iran.在一条社交媒体帖子中，特朗普还对陷入僵局的美伊谈判轻描淡写。“I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement,” he wrote on Tuesday night, hours after the United States carried out a fresh wave of attacks and Iran hit back.“我完全不在乎他们是否签署一份对他们来说毫无价值的协议，”他在周二晚写道。数小时前，美国刚发动了新一波攻击，伊朗也予以了回击。“I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing,” Mr. Trump continued. “They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”“我更喜欢我们现在的处境，几乎完全控制了霍尔木兹海峡，而他们的经济正在全面崩溃，”特朗普接着写道。“他们只是在拖延一个不可避免的结局。伊朗人民什么时候才能奋起反抗？”The post followed a 24-hour stretch during which Mr. Trump’s by-now familiar playbook for the conflict was on full display. The president went from boasting that Iran was defeated militarily, a “failed nation” in economic disarray, to threatening an apocalyptic attack that would leave “very little left” of the country after it had defied his declarations and demands.在这篇帖文发布前的24小时里，特朗普在这场冲突中迄今已为人所熟知的套路展现得淋漓尽致。他先是吹嘘伊朗在军事上已被击败，是一个经济混乱的“失败国家”；在伊朗无视他的声明和要求之后，他又威胁要对伊朗发动末日式攻击，让这个国家“几乎什么都剩不下”。By Wednesday morning, as Iran and the United States assessed the damage of the most recent attacks, Mr. Trump was back to trolling the country on social media, asking his followers whether the United States should name the Strait of Hormuz the “Trump Strait.”到了周三上午，当伊朗和美国正在评估最新一轮袭击造成的损失时，特朗普又回到社交媒体上嘲讽伊朗，问他的粉丝们美国是否应该把霍尔木兹海峡改名为“特朗普海峡”。Foreign policy experts say the latest round of hostilities point to a reality that has become increasingly clear of Mr. Trump’s handling of the war: He has run out of options.外交政策专家表示，最新一轮敌对行动暴露出特朗普处理这场战争时一个日益清晰的事实：他已经没有多少牌可打了。“The strategy has been rinse and repeat, whether it’s rhetorical or kinetic action,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former State Department appointee in the first Trump administration. “It’s been absolutely shocking how the United States has been exposed for a lack of a plan of engagement, and a lack of a plan to either win or exit this war.”“不管是在口头上还是实际行动上，他的策略一直都是翻来覆去地重复同一套，”共和党策略师、特朗普第一任总统任期内曾任国务院官员的马修·巴特利特说。“在应对这场战争方面，美国既缺乏作战计划，也没有赢得或退出这场战争的计划，这实在令人震惊。”Mr. Bartlett said that Mr. Trump’s return to a call to action urging Iranians to take over the government — an unfulfilled objective of the war that Mr. Trump has admitted was not achievable — suggests he has no real strategy.巴特利特说，特朗普再次呼吁伊朗人采取行动、推翻本国政府说明他实际上已经没有真正的战略了。这是战争中一个始终未能实现的目标，特朗普自己也承认这一目标无法实现。“When you get to the bottom,” he added, “you go back to the top of the ladder of engagement.”“当所有手段都用完了，”他说，“就只能回到原点，把同样的套路再走一遍。”But regardless of Mr. Trump’s combative words, Iran is making clear that it has leverage, as well. Even though Mr. Trump had predicted that the war would be over in a matter of weeks, there is no real end in sight. Iran has fired on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, severely curbing the ability of U.S. allies to export oil and gas.但无论特朗普的言辞多么好斗，伊朗也在表明它同样掌握着筹码。尽管特朗普曾预测战争将在几周内结束，眼下却根本看不到真正结束的迹象。伊朗已向通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只开火，严重限制了美国盟友出口石油和天然气的能力。That is not to say that the U.S. operations in Iran have not hurt the country. Michael Froman, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said that it was undeniable that Iran was in a fundamentally weaker position than it was a few years ago, and that the U.S. military had achieved many of the war’s objectives.当然，这并不是说美国在伊朗的军事行动没有对伊朗造成打击。美国外交关系委员会主席迈克尔·弗罗曼表示，不可否认，伊朗目前的处境从根本上说已经比几年前糟糕得多，美军也已经实现了战争中的许多目标。In the first weeks of the operation, the United States took out senior leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and decimated Iran’s navy. Mr. Trump has also claimed that the country has “no Air Force, they have no currency, they are not paying their soldiers or police, Inflation is at 300%, and their leadership is in total disarray and incapable of properly representing the country.”在行动最初几周，美国消灭了包括最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊在内的多名高级领导人，重创了伊朗海军。特朗普还宣称，伊朗已经“没有空军，没有货币，发不出士兵和警察的工资，通胀率达到300%，而且领导层彻底陷入混乱，无法有效代表这个国家”。But Iran, now led by a more hard-line regime, has proved that it can disrupt the global economy even with a weakened or limited military, by wielding its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.但如今由一个更加强硬的政权领导的伊朗已经证明，即使军事力量遭到削弱或受到限制，它依然可以凭借自己对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力扰乱全球经济。“The U.S. has demonstrated its capacity, and that it continues to have one of the most effective militaries in the world,” Mr. Froman said. “I think the challenge is this asymmetric warfare — where we do have the most effective military in the world, but smaller powers with far less capacity, strategically deployed, could still wreak havoc and make it difficult for us to achieve 100 percent of our objectives.”“美国已经展示了自己的实力，也证明了它仍然拥有世界上最有效的军事力量之一，”弗罗曼说。“但我认为，真正的挑战在于这种非对称战争——我们的确拥有世界上最强大的军事力量，但那些能力远逊于我们的较小国家，只要有策略地加以运用，仍然能够造成严重破坏，让我们很难实现百分之百的战争目标。”Mr. Trump has recently sought to move on from a military campaign in Iran by waging economic warfare.特朗普最近试图通过打一场经济战来摆脱对伊朗的军事行动。The United States has sought to squeeze Iran economically by enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and increasing sanctions on Tehran. The administration is also banking on a so-called “economic D-Day” announced last month by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which the White House described “an unprecedented campaign to sever every remaining economic lifeline sustaining the Islamic Republic of Iran.”美国试图通过对伊朗港口实施海上封锁以及加强对德黑兰的制裁，从经济上进一步挤压伊朗。特朗普政府还寄希望于美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上个月宣布的所谓“经济D日”。白宫将其描述为“一场前所未有的行动，旨在切断维持伊朗伊斯兰共和国生存的所有剩余经济命脉。”The campaign is intended to exert pressure on other countries, including potentially China and Russia, that continue to trade with Iran or help it evade U.S. sanctions.这场行动的目的是向那些仍在与伊朗进行贸易、或帮助伊朗规避美国制裁的其他国家施压，其中可能包括中国和俄罗斯。But few countries have shown any indication that it plans to heed the calls, including the two U.S. adversaries Mr. Trump has been reluctant to confront.但到目前为止，几乎没有哪个国家表现出愿意听从美国要求的迹象，包括特朗普一直不愿正面应对的这两个美国对手。China remains a lifeline for Iran, buying its oil and supplying it with raw materials and technology that support its economy and military. And just this week, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia pledged that his country would continue to support Iran and help them defend their national interests.中国仍然是伊朗的生命线，购买石油并向其供应支撑经济和军事的原材料和技术。就在本周，俄罗斯总统普京承诺，俄罗斯将继续支持伊朗，并帮助其捍卫国家利益。Mr. Trump is also feeling the political price at home, in terms of the toll on the American economy ahead of the midterm elections. He is reluctant to resume an all-out bombardment, even though he issues regular threats, including one on Tuesday night announcing that the United States was hitting Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz.与此同时，特朗普在国内也开始感受到这场战争带来的政治代价，尤其是在中期选举临近之际，美国经济所承受的压力。他不愿重新发动全面轰炸，尽管他仍不断发出威胁，包括周二晚间，他宣布美国将打击霍尔木兹海峡附近的伊朗目标。“If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack,” he wrote, “they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!”“如果这个失败的伊朗国家因为这次完全正当的攻击而进行报复，”他写道，“他们将再次遭到打击，力度更大、级别更高，但这不会是最大的一次打击——最猛烈的打击已经伺机待发；等它结束之后，伊朗伊斯兰共和国将几乎什么都不剩！”Khaled Elgindy, a senior research fellow in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and adjunct instructor at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, said that Mr. Trump’s bluster on social media is attempting to save face for the quagmire he has put himself, and Republicans heading into the midterms, in.昆西治国方略研究所中东项目高级研究员、乔治城大学当代阿拉伯研究中心兼职讲师哈立德·埃尔金迪表示，特朗普在社交媒体上虚张声势，是在试图为自己——以及即将迎来中期选举的共和党——陷入困局挽回颜面。“Part of the play is that he’s just playing to his base, whether it’s true or not,” Mr. Elgindy said. “I don’t think there’s much of a strategy beyond trying to wish things into existence by sheer force of words.”“他这套做法的部分原因就是为了迎合他的基本盘——不管他说的是真是假，”埃尔金迪说。“我不认为这里面有什么真正的战略，除了试图靠言语本身的力量，把自己希望发生的事情硬生生说成现实。”Erica L. Green是时报白宫记者，报道特朗普总统及其政府。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。