Does the BITCOIN/S&P 500 ratio confirm the bottom?BTCUSD/SPXBITSTAMP:BTCUSD/SPCFD:SPXSwissquote1) The shortest bear market in BTC history Against the seasonal statistics that traditionally make August the second-worst month in BTC history, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a vertical rise from $62,000 to $80,000. Has the bear market definitively ended on Wednesday, July 1, at $57,750? If the July 1 low at $57,750 were indeed to be the final bottom of the current Bitcoin bear market, the 2026 bearish cycle would have an exceptional characteristic. At 268 days, it would be significantly shorter than the three previous major cyclical Bitcoin bear markets: 406 days in 2014, 363 days in 2018 and 376 days in 2022. The declining trend in duration, however, would remain intact. The table below compares BTC’s cyclical bear markets according to two criteria. 2) Above the 200-day moving average, the bear market is over To determine whether the July 1 low is truly the final bottom of the bear market, two technical indicators also deserve particular attention: the 200-day simple moving average and the weekly Kijun of the Ichimoku system. Historically, the 200-day SMA has been one of the main dividing lines between a bull market and a bear market in Bitcoin. A sustained recovery above this average, followed by consolidation above it, represents a much more robust signal than a simple vertical rebound following a capitulation phase. The 200-day SMA was decisively broken to the upside on August 19. From now on, as long as Bitcoin preserves the $70,000 support level, we can consider the cyclical bear market to be over. 3) The BITCOIN/S&P 500 ratio entering a bullish reversal phase On Bitcoin’s price against the US dollar, there are therefore fairly strong signals pointing to the end of the cyclical bear market. It is also interesting to note that the relative approach is revealing similar signals. This is particularly true of the technical analysis applied to the Bitcoin/S&P 500 ratio, which is showing the same early bullish reversal signals seen in 2019 and 2022: a weekly bullish divergence and a breakout above the weekly Kijun of the Ichimoku system. Naturally, only a breakout above the weekly Kumo would definitively confirm the beginning of a new long-term bullish phase. The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of the Bitcoin/S&P 500 ratio. The breakout above the weekly Kijun (Ichimoku system) is an early bullish reversal signal, as seen in 2019 and 2022. 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