Bitcoin Has the Flows, but 81k Still Won

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Bitcoin Has the Flows, but 81k Still WonBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDEvelyn_ReedBitcoin finally pushed into the 80.8–81.5k supply zone and sellers responded almost immediately. Normally, I would blame weak demand. This time that explanation does not really work. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $731 million on September 3, one of the strongest sessions of the recent run. BlackRock alone accounted for about $454 million. So buyers are clearly still there. The problem is macro. August payrolls came in at 162,000 versus roughly 56,000 expected, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Treasury yields jumped and markets raised the probability of a September Fed hike to around 60%. That makes the rejection near 81k more interesting. Bitcoin had strong flows behind it and still could not establish acceptance above supply. What the chart shows The upper zone has done its job again. Price traded above 81k briefly, but there was no real follow-through. The next meaningful area is 76.2–76.7k. That support has attracted buyers several times already and would be the natural place to judge whether the broader recovery still has depth. Primary scenario While Bitcoin remains below 80.8–81.5k, a deeper retest toward support stays credible. Holding 76.2–76.7k would keep the larger range intact and leave room for another attempt higher. Alternative scenario A quick reclaim of 81.5k would make the rejection much less important. That would be especially meaningful if ETF inflows remain strong despite higher yields. What comes next Next week’s U.S. inflation data now matters even more. The jobs report gave the Fed room to tighten. CPI will tell us whether it actually needs to. Bitcoin has plenty of buyers, but for now the rates market is stronger than the breakout.