ARB/USDT | H2 | OVERHEAT AT THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF THE RANGEArbitrum / USDTMEXC:ARBUSDTTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $0.137871 (+3.83%) │ TP2: $0.146231 (+10.13%) 🛑 SL: $0.120552 (-9.21%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.1 ⚠️ SL placed beyond the nearest candle wicks to reduce the risk of accidental stop-out FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND ARB has no catalysts of its own, while the market is pricing in pressure from the upcoming large token unlock on September 16, which limits appetite for long positions on the medium-term horizon. In the absence of project-specific news, ARB moves as a function of the broader crypto market, which remains in a mode of high bitcoin dominance without sustained inflows into altcoins. The Fear and Greed Index at 52 (neutral zone) does not create a pronounced trend impulse — the current move is more technical than fundamental in nature. TECHNICAL PICTURE The price has risen above the Ichimoku cloud and consolidated above the Tenkan and Kijun lines at the $0.12 level — this confirms a bullish bias in the indicator structure. However, the CCI indicator at 150.4 indicates entry into the overbought zone, signaling a risk of a local correction. The Williams indicator at –9.9 also confirms the overbought state of the quotes. A positive CMF (0.119) shows that capital inflow is still present, but continued upward movement without a pullback will be vulnerable to a sharp liquidation of long positions. PROBABILITY MODEL The market is in a bullish mode, but with a notable bias toward a reversal scenario. The probability of continued growth is estimated at 53%, a bearish reversal at 36%, while the model is set for a strong move (above 1.5% volatility). Model confidence is 75%, and current indicators require caution: overbought conditions contradict an entry "at the high," but trend signals are still on the buyer's side. DIRECTION 🟢 BUY The buy signal is supported by the price position above the Ichimoku cloud and confirming capital inflow via CMF.