FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold erased completely the Treasury buyback announcement gains after Fed Chair Warsh retightened financial conditions with his hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Since yesterday, we’ve started to see pullbacks across many markets as the hawkish repricing run its course and things stabilised. The US CPI report next Friday remains the key risk event that could influence interest rate expectations and decide the next direction for gold. As of now, traders are seeing a 58% chance of a rate hike in September. I think only a soft CPI could bring the probabilities below 50% and deter the Fed from hiking at the upcoming meeting. If the probabilities stay at or above 50%, the Fed might be forced to hike regardless because failure to do so would send a dovish message. For gold, I think the upside is currently limited by Fed tightening risks and the escalation in the US-Iran war. These two drivers will be monitored closely. A de-escalation in the Middle East and dovish repricing in interest rate expectations via a soft CPI would be positive drivers and should take gold to new highs. Conversely, a hot CPI without a de-escalation in the war, should trigger another selloff which might take gold below the 4,000 level again. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold eventually dropped to the key swing low around the 4,311 level where the price bounced as the buyers stepped in to position for a rally into the 4,890 level. The sellers will need the price to break below the 4,311 level to open the door for a move into the 3,885 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price is now near the key resistance zone around the 4,450 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 4,311 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the downward trendline next. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price is trading inside a tight channel which might also signal weakening bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the lower bound of the channel to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to pile in for a drop back into the 4,311 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTodaywe have Fed’s Waller speaking, the US Jobless Claims data and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.