BTCUSD (D) — the 36% rebound attacks the weekly EMA 100Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDEdoLab-MarketsBTCUSD Bitcoin trades at $78,512.13 with a wide bullish daily candle (open at $77,294.61, high at $78,743.27, low at $76,940.96) that adds 1.57% and places price on the upper half of the rebound. It is worth placing the move before reading anything else. The asset lost 54.3% from its all-time high at $126,272, printed last October, down to the $57,734.63 low of July, and from that floor it has recovered 36% in seven weeks, although it still trades 37.8% below its ceiling. The daily structure backs the recovery without a crack, because price works above the entire moving average stack, with the EMA 5 ($78,003) and the EMA 9 ($77,604) right below, the EMA 20 ($75,001) as the first real step down and the EMA 200 ($72,392) more than six thousand dollars lower. Short term momentum has not fully turned yet, with the MACD crossed down but narrowing (main line at 3,276, signal at 3,437, histogram at −160) and the TRIX in a bearish bias although its strength is fading. The oscillators split the message, because the Stoch 89 (84) and the Stoch 50 (81) work high while the Stoch 5 has already unwound to 42, and the RSI 14 (67.95) approaches saturation without stepping into it. The best part of the short frame is flow, with the A/D clearly accumulating and its fast line (82) well above the slow one (54). On top of that the daily structure has already printed its change of character to the upside and keeps three active demand zones below, the strongest one at $63,310. Monthly Analysis. The larger timeframe holds the underlying map but has not resolved the correction yet. Price trades above the EMA 9 ($75,517) and below the EMA 20 ($78,238), which is the border that has separated impulse from correction over the last year, with the EMA 50 ($66,803) and the EMA 100 ($49,287) far below as structural floor. The monthly MACD remains turned against, with its main line (313) sunk under its signal (4,045) and a histogram at −3,732, while the TRIX keeps a bearish bias with fading strength. The stochastics describe the transition well, because the Stoch 89 (57) and the Stoch 50 (52) point up while the Stoch 14 (23) stays buried, and a bullish cross of the fast over the intermediate has printed this very month. The RSI 14 (51.01) sits nailed to the midpoint, which is the honest reading of an asset that on this frame is neither bullish nor bearish. Flow is still the pillar of the chart, with the A/D fast line (83) and the slow one (87) both high despite a slightly negative histogram (−5), and the monthly structure keeps its last break to the upside with eight demand zones alive below. August is the candle that changes the pace, with a 25.08% rise that gives back at once everything lost in June and July, and September stays flat with a 0.11% decline. Weekly Analysis. The intermediate timeframe is the one that decides and the one that explains the title. Price has reached the weekly EMA 100 ($78,444) after reclaiming the EMA 50 ($77,317), and those two averages form the corridor that has been containing the market for three weeks after the vertical leg. Neither of the last two weeks managed to close above that reference, so here the Sunday close is worth far more than any intraday high. Below sit the EMA 9 ($71,264), the EMA 20 ($70,878) and the EMA 200 ($68,676), all of them reclaimed during the thrust, which turns the $68,000 area into the real underlying support. Momentum does work in favour, with the MACD in a bullish cross below zero (main line at −1,574, signal at −3,901, histogram at 2,327) and the TRIX crossed up and expanding. The stochastics leave the best argument on the chart, because the Stoch 89 (30) and the Stoch 50 (30) remain in the lower part of their travel while the Stoch 14 (88) and the Stoch 5 (85) already work high. The cautions on this frame are three and they are serious. The RSI 2 (93.44) is overbought, the A/D keeps its fast line (−63) below the slow one (−59) and the weekly structure has not corrected its last bearish break yet. The premium zone finishes the picture, with price at 81% of the range between $59,930 and $82,833. Bitcoin does not report earnings and has no fundamental layer that can be read like a company, and that changes how the chart has to be approached. What moves price is global risk appetite and liquidity conditions, on top of a supply issued at a decreasing and previously known pace. That is why the asset works in long cycles, with violent expansions and corrections that historically have exceeded 50% even inside intact larger trends. The 54.3% decline since October fits that pattern, and so does a 36% rebound in seven weeks. The practical consequence is that the monthly frame rules here and that no calendar date will settle the question, because the market trades non stop seven days a week and the answer will come from price against the levels. Key levels: - Resistance 1: $78,743.27 (daily high) - Resistance 2: $79,461 (August thrust high) - Resistance 3: $81,454.98 (August monthly ceiling) - Range ceiling: $82,833 (May high) - Dynamic support: $78,003 and $77,604 (daily EMAs 5 and 9) - Support 1: $77,317 (weekly EMA 50) - Support 2: $76,228.56 (September low) - Structural support: $62,216-$57,734.63 (cycle base) Setup Rating — 3/5 ⭐⭐⭐⭒⭒ (Confirmed weekly momentum turn and a well defined floor, against a price in premium territory, weekly flow that is not buying yet and an intermediate structure still uncorrected) ✅ Positive factors: - A 36% rebound from the July low without losing a single daily average - Weekly MACD in a bullish cross below zero, with the histogram at 2,327 - Weekly TRIX crossed up and with expanding strength - Weekly Stoch 89 (30) and Stoch 50 (30) in the lower part, with room ahead - Daily A/D accumulating, with its fast line (82) well above the slow one (54) - Daily structure with a change of character to the upside and three active demand zones below ⚠️ Cautions: - Price in premium territory, at 81% of the weekly range between $59,930 and $82,833 - Weekly A/D still distributing, with its fast line (−63) below the slow one (−59) - Monthly MACD and TRIX turned against, with the monthly histogram at −3,732 - Weekly RSI 2 at 93.44 and weekly structure still holding its last bearish break 👍 As long as price holds the weekly EMA 50 ($77,317) on closes, the rebound stays alive and the natural path runs through confirming the weekly EMA 100 ($78,444) with a candle close, then the $79,461 high and afterwards the $81,454.98 to $82,833 band. A lateral consolidation between $76,228.56 and $79,461 for a few weeks would even be the best scenario, because it would let the RSI 2 cool down and the weekly A/D recover ground without having to lose any support. Confirmation that the rebound is turning into something more would be a weekly close above $82,833 with the weekly A/D histogram back in positive ground. 👎 Losing the weekly EMA 50 ($77,317) would put price back inside the previous range and leave the first serious warning at $76,228.56, whose loss on a close would open the path toward the daily EMA 20 ($75,001) and then the daily EMA 200 ($72,392). Below that the next destination would be the weekly EMA 200 area ($68,676), which is where it would be decided whether the August turn was a change of phase or just a technical bounce inside the larger correction. Only the loss of that reference would bring the focus back to the cycle base between $62,216 and $57,734.63, and with it to the cheap half of the range. Do you read this as a cycle floor or as a bounce inside a bigger correction? 👇