Gold Rose 20% in Eight Weeks, Then Eased. What Its Chart Says

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Gold Rose 20% in Eight Weeks, Then Eased. What Its Chart SaysGold FuturesCOMEX_DL:GC1!moomooI recently covered Bitcoin's chart and two readers basically asked me to please do gold GC1! next. Let's get started. Gold's Fundamental Analysis Like Bitcoin BTCUSD and some other alternative assets, gold had a terrific June into August. The metal rose some 20% from its $3,963-an-ounce near-term low on June 30 to a $4,755.00 recent high on Aug. 25. That said, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's rather hawkish address from Jackson Hole on Aug. 28 sent gold lower. The metal has fallen some 5% from its Aug. 25 peak to trade at $4,524.40 an ounce as of Thursday morning. Bond yields had already been rising due to global inflationary pressure. Throw in rekindled U.S.-Iran hostilities and fiat-currency valuations are shifting. As fiat valuations adjust, so will values for precious metals and other commodities. Safe haven? What's that? Gold's Technical Analysis Next, let's go to gold futures' year-to-date chart running through Tuesday afternoon (Sept. 1). For the purpose of charting gold as a commodity, I used prices for front-month futures trading at the New York Comex: Readers will see that much as I noted with Bitcoin, two concurrent technical patterns developed recently for gold that both appear to be bullish. Gold first saw a long falling-wedge pattern of bullish reversal, shaded in tan in the chart above. This led to the metal's early August breakout. Readers will also notice a shorter double-bottom pattern for gold, shaded in green at the chart's right. This is also a pattern of bullish reversal. Gold appears to have apexed in late August and has since lost both its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a red line) and 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," denoted by a green line). Should the metal continue to drop as interest rates rise, potential support at the 50-day SMA (the blue line above) will become crucial. That's $4,248.60 in the chart above vs. gold futures' $4,524.40 Thursday morning price. Moving on to the other technical indicators above, gold futures' Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) appears to have recently peaked in technically overbought territory, then cooled significantly. Similarly, gold futures' daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (the blue bars, black line and gold line at the chart's bottom) no longer looks very bullish, either. For openers, the histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) has crossed into negative territory. That's bearish. In addition, the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That's a bearish signal as well. Should you sell gold here? This is really a U.S. dollar story as much as anything else. Personally, I'll be watching that thin blue line. That will tell me what I need to know. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in gold at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. 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