Markets react to Gov. Waller comments. Stocks higher. Yields lower, and the USD lower

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Fed Governor Christopher Waller gave markets a more dovish message this morning, and traders responded by pushing yields and the US dollar lower while lifting stock futures. But with the major currency pairs reaching key technical levels, the next question is: Can traders extend those moves, or will support and resistance slow the momentum?In the video above, I look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and explain how those levels help traders judge control, identify targets and define risk.Speaking to Reuters, Waller said he is finally seeing signs of disinflation and would be inclined to leave rates unchanged in September if August’s inflation data shows continued progress. For newer traders, disinflation means prices are rising more slowly. It does not necessarily mean prices are falling. That distinction matters because easing inflation pressure could give the Fed less reason to raise rates again.Waller did leave the door open to a hike if inflation accelerates. Putting it another way, he is leaning toward holding steady, but the data still needs to cooperate.Markets reacted to that softer stance:US 2-year yield: Down about 7.07 basis points.US 10-year yield: Down about 5.5 basis points.S&P 500 futures: Up about 25 points.Nasdaq futures: Up about 41 points.Why does that matter for currencies? When traders reduce expectations for higher US interest rates, US yields can fall, reducing the dollar’s interest-rate advantage. That helps explain today’s dollar selling. Lower yields can also support stocks by easing borrowing-cost concerns and making future earnings more valuable in today’s dollars.For the three major currency pairs, dollar weakness means EURUSD and GBPUSD move higher, while USDJPY moves lower. However, each pair is now testing an area where traders have a technical reason to push back.The USDJPY was already moving lower following continued yen buying in the Asia-Pacific session and a break below its 200-day moving average. The decline has approached 2%, with the session low reaching 155.40. That puts the pair about 18 pips above the August 3 intervention low at 155.218.Sellers remain in control, but an earlier low gives traders a reference point where buying could emerge. The question now is what the buyers need to reclaim to show that the selling pressure is easing. In the video, I explain the shorter-term levels I am watching and why they help sellers define their risk. HINT; It involves looking at the 5 minute chart. The EURUSD moved higher into resistance at its 200-hour and 200-day moving averages, between 1.16275 and 1.16310. The session high reached 1.1630 before stalling.When two widely watched moving averages come together, traders have a clearly defined area against which to lean. Buyers need to get—and stay—above that area to increase the bullish bias. Sellers leaning against resistance want to see the price rotate back below 1.16134. That would open the door toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.15963.The GBPUSD found support yesterday at 1.34732, the 50% midpoint of the rally from the late-July corrective low. Today’s move higher following Waller’s comments reached the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.3521, with the session high matching that level precisely.That gives traders another clear barometer. Staying below the moving average keeps resistance sellers in play. Getting and staying above it would strengthen the buyers’ case.The lesson is that the news can start the move, while the technical levels help traders manage what comes next. A more dovish Fed message has weakened the dollar, but extending that move requires traders to break through the next technical barriers.No one knows with certainty whether those levels will hold or break. What traders can do is identify where their view gains support, where it starts to fail, and where the next target lies. In the video above, I walk through those decisions for each pair and explain why the levels matter. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.