The ECB Is Getting More Hawkish, but EUR/USD Still Looks HeavyEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEvelyn_ReedEUR/USD has recovered from the latest selloff, but buyers are still struggling to break the short-term descending structure. Normally, the euro should have a little more help here. Euro-area inflation rose to 3.3% in August, and a September ECB hike is now almost taken for granted. A Reuters poll of economists was unanimous: the deposit rate is expected to rise by 25 basis points next week. The U.S. side became slightly less supportive for the dollar as well. Christopher Waller opened the door to leaving rates unchanged if inflation continues to cool, and markets quickly reduced the odds of another Fed hike. Yet EUR/USD is still hesitating. That is the detail I would not ignore. What the chart shows Price is sitting underneath descending resistance after already losing the rising structure that carried the August move. The first support below is around 1.157–1.158. That area matters because it previously acted as part of the breakout structure. If buyers defend it again, the broader recovery can survive even if the short-term chart remains messy. Below that, 1.150–1.152 is the more important demand zone. Primary scenario While EUR/USD stays below descending resistance, another test of 1.157–1.158 remains reasonable. Holding there would keep the larger structure alive and give buyers another chance to rebuild. Alternative scenario A clean break above the descending line changes the picture. That would finally give price confirmation to the more supportive ECB/Fed rate story and put the recent highs back into focus. What would change the view The cautious interpretation weakens if EUR/USD breaks and holds above descending resistance. The broader constructive case weakens if price starts accepting below 1.150. What comes next Friday’s U.S. payroll report is the obvious catalyst. The ECB side of the equation is becoming clearer. The Fed side still depends heavily on the next labour and inflation numbers. The euro has a better policy story than it did a week ago, but price still refuses to fully believe it.