Strategy Stock: Is the Bottom In?Strategy Inc Class ABATS:MSTRSwissquoteWhile Bitcoin may have ended its cyclical bear market on Wednesday, July 1, at $57,750, a similar question now arises for Strategy stock, the world’s largest holder of Bitcoin. Historically, and this may seem logical, Strategy stock has consistently been ahead of the technical signals provided by Bitcoin’s price. It is therefore essential for technical analysis to also confirm a major bottom in Strategy stock in order to validate the hypothesis of a major bottom in Bitcoin. First, I would like to remind you of the very strong relationship between Strategy and the price of Bitcoin, while also highlighting an important date: October 16, when Strategy could either be excluded from or remain eligible for MSCI indices. The table below presents the hypothesis of a cyclical bear market that ended on July 1 at $57,750 and compares it with previous bear markets within the so-called four-year Bitcoin cycle. Strategy has become a true Bitcoin proxy in equity markets. The company now holds a considerable amount of BTC on its balance sheet, meaning that its valuation is therefore heavily dependent on the performance of the world’s leading cryptocurrency. But the financial leverage associated with its Bitcoin acquisition strategy also amplifies movements in the stock, both upward and downward. This is precisely what makes the technical analysis of Strategy particularly interesting today. If the stock were to confirm a major bullish reversal, this would provide an additional signal supporting the hypothesis that Bitcoin has already established a major bottom. Conversely, a renewed deterioration in Strategy, particularly below its latest major technical support levels, could indicate that the market has not yet completed its capitulation phase. But the main short-term risk could ultimately come from outside Bitcoin itself. On October 16, MSCI is expected to make a decision regarding Strategy’s eligibility for its indices. An exclusion could trigger forced selling by index funds and become a significant source of volatility for the stock. The issue is therefore twofold: determining whether Strategy has already established a major technical bottom and assessing the potential impact of the MSCI decision. These two elements could provide valuable clues about the next major phase of the Bitcoin market. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s price currently presents numerous arguments in favor of a bottom having been established on July 1. However, it still needs to break above the weekly Ichimoku Kumo, and this could still take some time. As for Strategy stock, following an 85% decline from its all-time high, powerful bullish price/momentum divergences argue in favor of a bottom having been established at the end of June. However, several resistance levels still need to be broken to validate this scenario, notably the 200-day and 200-week moving averages, as well as the Kijun and the weekly Kumo of the Ichimoku system. The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of Strategy stock. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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