For many Indians, the GDP growth rate does not tally with their lived experience. (Pixabay)At the start of the week, the Union government released the economic growth rate for the April to June quarter, pegging growth at around 7.8%. This is, historically speaking, a very robust rate of economic growth. And yet, possibly for the first time, a section of the public is unwilling to accept the figure.The most curious aspect of this mistrust in the latest official data is the trust placed in last year’s official data, which belongs to a now-discarded data series. What is even more odd is that this questioning seems to have been triggered by a patently flawed understanding of data by a former Finance Secretary, as explained here.Old vs new seriesFor several years now, India’s GDP (gross domestic product, the measure of total economic output) data has been questioned by several academics, as well as international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund. Such critics, some of whom have earlier held senior positions in the government, have provided well-founded counters to official calculations and argued that India was overstating its economic output.In February this year, the government undertook a revision of the GDP series, along with that of other key data series such as retail inflation, apart from introducing new surveys to capture the economy more accurately.However, the first quarterly GDP data release under the new and reformed data series seems to run into mistrust. To be sure, while critics may still be demanding more transparency and improvements, none of the experts is arguing that the new series is worse than the previous one, which, even by the government’s own admission, was overstating the GDP.ExplainSpeaking | Understanding the ‘discrepancies’ in India’s new GDP dataThe question is: Why has official data, which shows a very handsome rate of growth, received such a negative response from the common man? Why has the trust faded in such a manner that people are now using the same data, which until February was blamed for overstating GDP, as the benchmark?Story continues below this adThe most common answer is: The GDP growth rate does not tally with the lived experience of the people. Prima facie, there is enough evidence to indicate this.What data showHere are five factors that point to the economic underpinning of this mistrust in government data.1. Employment has stagnated. (see CHART 1) Chart 1.2. The labour force has declined (see CHART 2), showing fewer people actively demanding jobs, most likely because discouraged workers stop actively looking for work. Chart 2.3. Wages have been heading south (see CHART 3). This is data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). A CMIE report notes: “The average wage rate declined by 1.5 per cent in July. This was the fifth monthly decline in the 12-month period ending July. Also, the wage rate has declined twice in the last three months and as a result, the recent three months have been particularly stressful on the wage rate front.”Story continues below this ad Chart 3.4. Retail inflation has been rising (see CHART 4), and the spike in food inflation has been even sharper, rising from just around 2% in January to over 5% in July. Chart 4.5. Unsurprisingly, all manners of consumer sentiment are in negative territory (see CHART 5). Chart 5.In a research note, Mahesh Vyas, the CEO of CMIE, writes: “July 2026 was not the best of times for Indian households. Employment had stagnated and labour force had shrunk. Consumer sentiments were weak and inflation was above 4 per cent for a second consecutive month. This was also the month when the delayed monsoon had seriously hampered the kharif sowing schedule and youth protests in the capital had intensified dramatically.”Udit Misra is Senior Associate Editor at The Indian Express. Misra has reported on the Indian economy and policy landscape for the past two decades. He holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics and is a Chevening South Asia Journalism Fellow from the University of Westminster. Misra is known for explanatory journalism and is a trusted voice among readers not just for simplifying complex economic concepts but also making sense of economic news both in India and abroad. Professional Focus He writes three regular columns for the publication. ExplainSpeaking: A weekly explanatory column that answers the most important questions surrounding the economic and policy developments. GDP (Graphs, Data, Perspectives): Another weekly column that uses interesting charts and data to provide perspective on an issue dominating the news during the week. Book, Line & Thinker: A fortnightly column that for reviewing books, both new and old. Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) His recent work focuses heavily on the weakening Indian Rupee, the global impact of U.S. economic policy under Donald Trump, and long-term domestic growth projections: Currency and Macroeconomics: "GDP: Anatomy of rupee weakness against the dollar" (Dec 19, 2025) — Investigating why the Rupee remains weak despite India's status as a fast-growing economy. "GDP: Amid the rupee's fall, how investors are shunning the Indian economy" (Dec 5, 2025). "Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2025: How the winners explained economic growth" (Oct 13, 2025). Global Geopolitics and Trade: "Has the US already lost to China? Trump's policies and the shifting global order" (Dec 8, 2025). "The Great Sanctions Hack: Why economic sanctions don't work the way we expect" (Nov 23, 2025) — Based on former RBI Governor Urjit Patel's new book. "ExplainSpeaking: How Trump's tariffs have run into an affordability crisis" (Nov 20, 2025). Domestic Policy and Data: "GDP: New labour codes and opportunity for India's weakest states" (Nov 28, 2025). "ExplainSpeaking | Piyush Goyal says India will be a $30 trillion economy in 25 years: Decoding the projections" (Oct 30, 2025) — A critical look at the feasibility of high-growth targets. "GDP: Examining latest GST collections, and where different states stand" (Nov 7, 2025). International Economic Comparisons: "GDP: What ails Germany, world's third-largest economy, and how it could grow" (Nov 14, 2025). "On the loss of Europe's competitive edge" (Oct 17, 2025). Signature Style Udit Misra is known his calm, data-driven, explanation-first economics journalism. He avoids ideological posturing, and writes with the aim of raising the standard of public discourse by providing readers with clarity and understanding of the ground realities. You can follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @ieuditmisra ... Read More