The seasonal growth period is over; the market is setting traps.

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The seasonal growth period is over; the market is setting traps.Ethereum / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:ETHUSDStrateg_ Today I wrote that we are approaching the sales period. In this article, I want to look at the future prospects for ETH. The price has clearly reached the targets set in the previous review, but at that time there was a clear combination of seasonal growth and a technical signal; from now on, the market will become much more complicated. The half‑year opened above 1500, which gives a signal for the annual candle to turn bullish. On the other hand, the new month opened at 2500, which does not confirm the trend but rather underscores that the current rise is still just a retest, with the possibility of a further break below 1500 within the context of the continuation of the bearish trend this year and the first half of the five‑year candle. In this regard, it is primarily necessary to prepare for a price drop down to 2100 if there are no clear signals of further growth — for example, the opening of a weekly candle above 2500. In an optimistic scenario, the pullback to 2100–2250 will be bought back, followed by a reversal of the monthly candle to bullish and a continuation of the trend up to 3500+, thanks to the opening of the half‑year above 1500. If the bulls manage to hold the overbought level of the previous month by the 11th–12th, this will also contribute to buying back from 2100 at the end of the month. In a more negative scenario, the new week will open below 2500. Speculators will not be enough to form a trend for the month. In this case, there will be an opportunity for an aggressive move towards 2100 already in the first half of the week. The likelihood of breaking 1500 will increase significantly, and the market’s prospects will be determined by the level of the mid‑month opening. Given the onset of a negative period, I recommend waiting to determine the further trend, not rushing into new purchases, and making them only on coins that previously showed clear signals of growth. Today, another monitoring tag was assigned, after which it will be possible to draw conclusions about the dynamics of heavily oversold coins in the near future. Unfortunately, a tag was assigned to TOWNS, which generated several growth waves of 25-35%, offering good opportunities for scalping during the growth season, but did not show a stable trend with the achievement of medium‑term targets. The probability of a retest of the 0.0035–50 range remains, but only within the context of an exit pump, and positions in that range should be reduced. Now, the probability of closing medium‑term targets at 0.015–25 has significantly decreased.. Among the coins with the highest growth potential, MITO is currently standing out strongly. The monitoring tag has not been assigned, which is a safe opportunity to act on the signals left above. The minimum target, even in an extremely negative market, is a return to the 0.021–25 range, which is key for an increase in volatility up to at least a retest of 0.050–75 and an attempt to trend towards medium‑term targets up to 10X. In an optimistic scenario and in the absence of a rapid decline in ETH towards 2100, MITO could easily begin to reverse the monthly candle starting today, with the development of an inverted head‑and‑shoulders pattern, and from the first wave consolidate the trend towards the main short‑term target for a retest at 0.071–85, with a profit of up to 3–5X. If the middle of the month is opened, and even more so a new quarter above 0.021 or 0.025, a further growth impulse will not be long in coming. The aggressive issuance of the token has ended, which also plays an important role and has stopped putting downward pressure on the price. With the current issuance, the 0.0165–0.175 zone is the main medium‑term support. A test of 0.015 is possible only in the short term — in the event of a sharp drop in ETH to 2100 or the assignment of a monitoring tag in the coming months, but with a subsequent recovery to 0.021–0.25 as soon as market pressure ceases. This makes buying at current levels quite safe. The second token with the highest growth potential that can be held confidently at current levels is SHELL. It is also in a heavily oversold position, and further decline is likely only short‑term, followed by a recovery of at least 50–70 % above current levels. The potential for major growth impulses this and next week also remains, due to the smooth issuance and the absence of monitoring tags. For TURTLE, an additional drawdown of up to -20% is currently likely due to the issuance, from which new purchases can be made, with probable subsequent growth waves of up to 70%+ at least for a retest of local highs. BMT has completed the first medium‑term take‑profit, but for now the likelihood of an additional drop to 30–35% is predominant, with a possible retest of 0.01 before a new growth wave and a trend towards the second medium‑term take‑profit. I would like to note that MITO SHELL TURTLE has medium-term targets similar to those of BMT or ENSO, which have already been used. Each wave targeting a retest of the local highs on the daily or weekly chart can lead to growth of up to 10-15X. A riskier but currently interesting asset is NOM. It has long been in an extremely oversold position among tokens with the monitoring tag and has a breakout potential of up to 5-10X. It’s hard to say whether the next delisting announcement will be made at the beginning of the new week to boost seasonal sales or will be postponed until the end of the month to offset seasonal market pressure. However, the current extreme overselling of the token leaves a high probability of a rise above the current level both after the delisting announcement and under market pressure. If the token is included in the delisting announcement, there will also be time for an exit pump. The growth targets are a retest of 0.0021–25 with a profit of at least 70%, and a retest of 0.0075–100 with a profit of up to 3–5X.