Fundamental Market Analysis for September 4, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004Event to watch today: 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate USDJPY: The yen retains its advantage following a sharp increase in expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Market participants anticipate a tougher stance from the regulator at the September 17–18 meeting, which contributes to a reduction in carry trades and limits the recovery of USDJPY after the recent decline. Additional support for the Japanese currency comes from fresh statements by authorities. Japan's chief currency diplomat confirmed heightened attention to exchange rate fluctuations and ongoing contacts with the US side. There is no official confirmation of new intervention, but the combination of these signals with the recent joint intervention by Japan and the US increases the risks of further dollar purchases against the yen. On the US side, more restrained expectations for the Fed rate weaken the previous dollar advantage. Even with moderate employment recovery, slowing wage growth could maintain a cautious stance from the American regulator. A stronger reassessment of the Bank of Japan's policy and the persistent risk of authority actions support the scenario of a USDJPY decline. Trading idea: SELL 156.300, SL 156.700, TP 155.300