DOGE/USDT | H2 | BEARISH TREND DOMINANCE WITH SPECULATION FACTORDOGE / USDTMEXC:DOGEUSDTTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $0.080354 (+1.13%) │ TP2: $0.079439 (+2.25%) 🛑 SL: $0.082935 (-2.05%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.1 ⚠️ SL placed beyond the nearest candle wicks to reduce the risk of accidental stop-out FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND DOGE remains under pressure from mixed signals: on one hand, the upcoming discontinuation of Doginals/DRC-20 support in MyDoge on September 17 forces some holders to migrate, creating local supply; on the other hand, rumors about Robinhood expanding its memecoin direction support speculative demand. The overall crypto market maintains risk appetite (fear and greed index in the "greed" zone at 64–65), but DOGE lacks its own strong catalyst for an upside breakout. In the macroeconomic agenda, expectations for US labor market data on 09/04/2026 (NFP, unemployment rate, hourly earnings) could increase volatility in risk assets, but the market remains in wait-and-see mode until the release. TECHNICAL PICTURE The price has consolidated below the Ichimoku cloud, and the Tenkan-sen (0.08) and Kijun-sen (0.08) lines have formed a "dead cross" — a classic bearish signal on H2. ADX at 38.5 indicates a strong trend with seller advantage, while CCI at -48.3 remains in negative territory, confirming the absence of a reversal impulse. Bollinger Band width (4.08) suggests moderate volatility, sufficient for continued downward movement. The nearest support is around the recent low of $0.080120, a break of which would open the path to the next level of $0.079000. PROBABILITY MODEL Despite the formally "bullish" mode of the probability model, the technical picture and ADX unequivocally indicate seller dominance. The probability of continued decline is estimated at 60% versus 47% for the bullish scenario, as the price is already below the Ichimoku cloud and shows no signs of reversal. A bullish scenario is only possible with a sharp change in market background or a news catalyst, which is unlikely in the coming hours. DIRECTION 🔴 SELL — the price has consolidated below the Ichimoku cloud with a strong trend according to ADX, indicating continued decline.