Socio-demographic and environmental factors amplify typhoon-related excess mortality in Japan

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Mechanisms shaping population vulnerability to typhoon-related mortality remain poorly understood. Constructing a Bayesian spatio-temporal model, we linked 12.9 million deaths across Japan from 2010 to 2019 to population-weighted typhoon wind exposure and assessed effect modification by income, natural hazard vulnerability and healthcare access. Typhoon exposure was associated with 2,426 cumulative excess deaths [95% credible interval: 139, 4,632] among adults [≥]70 years, with mortality increasing within 0-1 weeks of exposure and more strongly in areas with limited healthcare access and greater hazard vulnerability. Among individuals