The USDCAD has continued its rebound from last week’s low at 1.37317, with the price moving above both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. That has shifted the short-term technical bias more in favor of the buyers.The fundamental catalyst behind the move back higher has been the breakdown in the latest U.S.-Canada trade negotiations over the weekend. Recall that yesterday U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the U.S. offered Canada significant concessions in the latest trade negotiations, but Canada continued to seek more, contributing to the breakdown in talks. Greer downplayed the broader economic impact of the dispute, saying the latest tariff measures affect only a very small portion of overall U.S.-Canada trade. He argued that political considerations played a role in Canada’s negotiating stance and reiterated that the U.S. trade deficit with Canada remains an issue for the administration. On the broader economy, Greer said the U.S. remains on a good trajectory with solid underlying fundamentals.Whether one agrees with that assessment or not, the breakdown introduces another layer of uncertainty for the Canadian economy. Given Canada’s dependence on trade with the United States, the market appears to be viewing the deterioration in relations as more of a risk for Canada. That has helped weaken the Canadian dollar and push the USDCAD higher. On a positive front, the two sides are continuing to talk with Canada Trade Official LeBlanc saying this morning that USTR Greer has acted in good faith. Is it Trump who is the problem? HMMMMThe move lower today (and yesterday) is also being helped by the sharp decline in crude oil which is adding to the pressure on the CAD today. Crude oil is down more than 3%, and because Canada is a major energy exporter, falling oil prices can also act as a negative for the Canadian currency.Technically, the USDCAD fell sharply last week and extended below its 200-day moving average (lower green line on the chart above)and a lower channel trendline. The pair also broke below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the May low (not shown), opening the door for a move into the swing area between roughly 1.3765 and 1.3778. Sellers pushed through that area and reached a low of 1.37317 before the pair began its rebound.The recovery initially moved back above the 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.3806 (after the weekend trade breakdown news). The price has since surged above that MA, and extended also extended above the 200 day MA at 1.3844 and the 200-hour moving average not far from that level at 1.3848. That area is the key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. Staying above keeps the buyers in control at least in the short term with more work to do in order to wrestle more control from the sellers. The next topside target to give more buyer control, comes against a swing area between 1.3868 and 1.3877. Above that and the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the July high is also nearby at 1.3882.A move above that cluster would give the buyers additional confidence and open the door toward the 100-day moving average at 1.3913. The 50% retracement at 1.3929 would be the next target above that level.Conversely, a move back below the 200-day/200-hour moving averages would take some of the wind out of the buyers’ sails. Traders would then look back toward the 100-hour moving average near 1.3806. That moving average is also close to the broken downward-sloping trendline, increasing the level’s importance.Move below the 100-hour moving average and the short-term bullish bias would deteriorate. The sellers would start to take back more control, with the focus shifting again toward the lows from last week.For now, the buyers are making a play. The trade breakdown and falling crude oil prices are providing the fundamental catalyst, while the move above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages provides the technical support. Staying above the 200-hour moving average keeps the buyers in control and the focus on the next topside targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.