ThisisEngineering/PexelsAs young people progress through high school, they start making plans for what they will do when they leave. What factors influence their plans? And importantly, what helps them stay until the end of school? In our new study, we looked at Year 10 students’ plans and their rates of school completion. Our results suggest certain teaching approaches are linked with more academically focused plans and higher rates of finishing Year 12.Why does finishing school matter?Graduating from Year 12 is often a prerequisite for further education and training. It is also linked with a range of longer-term benefits, including higher lifetime earnings, more stable employment and better health.A significant number of young people still leave school early. In Australia, only 75–85% of students complete Year 12. This is consistently lower in rural and regional areas than in cities.Our researchOur study was based on an annual student survey collected by the NSW Centre for Education Statistics and Evaluation.We looked at 40,000 government school students in Year 9 and Year 10. Students came from right across the state. We asked Year 10 students about their plans for their education. Did they plan to complete high school? Go to university? Or attend TAFE or another form of vocational education? We also looked at students’ experiences of teaching in Year 9 – did they receive what the research says is effective teaching? We chose Year 9 because Year 10 is the final year of compulsory schooling in NSW. So Year 9 is one of the last chances for teachers to support students’ decisions about their education. 5 common plansOur results revealed five common plans held by students in Year 10.More than two-thirds of all students belonged to groups with strong plans to finish Year 12. But they differed in their plans for what they wanted to do after school. 1. Go to uni: around 50% of students were planning to finish school and attend university.2. Go to TAFE: around 10% were planning to finish school and do vocational training.3. Not sure about what next: around 20% were planning to finish school, but were undecided about what they wanted to do next.The remaining two groups were less certain about finishing school. 4. Not sure about finishing school: around 10% were uncertain about completing school or going to university, but were open to TAFE or other vocational training.5. Not planning on finishing school: around 10% were not intending to complete school or go to university, but were open to vocational training. The role of teachingWe also asked students to report on the kind of teaching they got. To work this out, we asked them to report on particular types of evidence-informed teaching across three areas: how content is taught and explained, how teachers connect with students and how classrooms are run. Students who experienced more effective teaching in Year 9 were more likely to plan to finish school. In fact, those who reported the best teaching were around 1.5 times more likely to be aiming to finish school and go to university than students who weren’t planning to finish.This suggests effective teaching in Year 9 may play an important role in supporting students’ plans to stay on and complete school.What happened in real life?We also looked at what happened to students’ plans. We found students who in Year 10 planned to complete school, were more likely to actually finish Year 12. This is compared with students whose plans were less certain in Year 10. For example, around eight in ten of those planning to finish school and go to university went on to complete Year 12. This compares with only about 2–3 in ten of the students least sure about finishing.These results highlight a strong connection between planning in Year 10 and actually finishing Year 12. Importantly, all these findings held after we accounted for a range of other factors that can shape students’ plans. This includes their prior academic skills and socioeconomic background.What do these findings mean for schools?The findings highlight the importance of teaching when it comes to students’ plans. This research – and other studies – also suggest there are ways teachers can support students to stay at school and plan a future geared around further training or study. These include: connecting learning to the real‑world – so students understand the relevance and usefulness of what they are doing at school. For example, showing how the maths in Year 10 is what you’d use to price products and manage the books when setting up a small businessproviding clear structure and instructions – so students can understand what success looks like and experience positive progress. This helps students stay engaged and feel like the learning is working for them. For example, sharing a model answer and breaking a big assignment into smaller checkpointsincluding students’ perspectives – this includes actions like acknowledging students’ views, ensuring fair access to resources, and holding high expectations, which helps them feel they belong at schoolhaving consistent rules and routines – so students know what to expect at school. Predictable, well-managed classrooms let students focus on learning rather than disruption, keeping them engaged.Outside of the classroom, schools can also help students learn about different pathways after school. Future research should examine how specific careers guidance can support different plansA few other things to keep in mindLike all research, our study has some limitations. It was correlational, which means while effective teaching was linked with students’ plans and school completion, we can’t say for certain it caused them. And there are other influences we didn’t measure — such as family and parental support — that also shape students’ plans. Even so, our findings carry a hopeful message: the quality of teaching can help shape not only how a student feels about school, but the plans they make for their future — and whether they go on to realise them. By strengthening teaching support in every classroom, schools can help more young people finish school and feel equipped for the futures they imagine.Rebecca J. Collie receives funding from the Commonwealth Department of Education and the NSW Department of Education. Andrew J. Martin receives funding from the Commonwealth Department of Education and NSW Department of Education