SPY Weekly Market Report — Preparation > PredictionState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYheavydiligenceWe have a very tradable week developing, but that does not mean I know which direction the market is going. That distinction matters. The 15-minute chart appears to have broken the short-term downtrend that developed off the recent highs. That gives the bulls something to work with, but it is only the beginning of the repair process. SPY finished around 765.70, and the important structure above us is stacked pretty clearly: 769 → 771 → 772 → 773 → 776 Below us, 766 is the immediate battlefield. If the repair fails and downside structure begins rebuilding, 758/756 become increasingly important. Current Scenario Weighting 🟢 Green — 35% The 15-minute trend break holds. A constructive futures session or modest gap higher Monday could help confirm that something has changed. From there, reclaiming 769 would be the first meaningful step. The bigger test is 771–773. If SPY can reclaim that area, hold it, and begin establishing structure above it, the repair becomes much more convincing and 776 comes into play. From there, a week-long grind back toward 780 is absolutely on the table. Notice the wording: reclaim → hold → build structure I am not interested in blindly chasing SPY because it traded through a line. 🟡 Yellow — 32% There are actually two ways Yellow can develop, and this may be the most frustrating scenario. The first is a bull trap. SPY breaks higher, potentially works into 769–773, gets everyone convinced the correction is over... and then loses the breakout and works back down. The second is basically the opposite. SPY breaks lower, loses the immediate structure, gets everyone convinced another major selloff has started... only to reclaim the breakdown and recover. Either version could create a lot of movement while SPY ultimately finishes the week not terribly far from where it started. With the amount of major information coming this week, I would not be surprised to see both bulls and bears get trapped at different points. 🔴 Red — 30% The 15-minute trend break fails. SPY loses the immediate 766 area, cannot repair it, and begins rebuilding bearish structure underneath. That would make the recent bounce look increasingly like a failed recovery rather than the start of a new leg higher. If that happens, 758/756 become much more important. The key again isn't merely touching those prices. I'm watching how price behaves when it gets there. 🟠 Orange — 3% This is the technical term for: “Oh F***!” A geopolitical shock, unexpected economic development, violent repricing in rates, major earnings surprise, or something nobody currently has on their bingo card blows through the normal map. I map this because literally anything can happen in markets. But Orange is different from Red. Red is orderly deterioration that I can potentially trade. Orange is disorder. And personally, I will not short the initial sky-is-falling move. I've learned that lesson the expensive way. If Orange happens, my priority is protecting capital, letting the initial shock play out, and waiting for the market to rebuild enough structure that I can actually measure risk again. The good news: almost everything else is tradable This is the part I really want people to understand. I don't need Green to happen. I don't need Red to happen. I don't need my highest-weighted scenario to be correct. Green can produce trades. Yellow can produce trades. Red can produce trades. The market decides which environment we get. Time determines where and how we participate. The larger scenario map gives us the battlefield. Then I drop to the 5-minute chart and look for the actual evidence required to risk capital. That is where HD Options Signals comes into the process. It isn't there to tell us: “BUY CALLS NOW.” It's there to help organize the evidence while we evaluate things like structure, VWAP, momentum, regime, confirmation and whether the setup is actually tradable. Combine that with these larger weekly maps and the Premarket Prep each morning, and we should have a pretty solid navigation system regardless of which path SPY eventually chooses. The goal isn't predicting the week Sunday night. The goal is making sure Monday morning isn't the first time we've considered what might happen. This analysis will change These are my current scenario weights: 🟢 Green 35% 🟡 Yellow 32% 🔴 Red 30% 🟠 Orange 3% They are not permanent. Futures will give us new information. Monday's price action will give us new information. The behavior around these levels will give us new information. And we have major catalysts throughout the week that can change the market's perspective very quickly. So I'll continue updating the map during the week. Changing the analysis when the evidence changes isn't moving the goalposts. It's the entire point. And one last thing for everyone who follows these posts: There are no dumb questions on my pages. Seriously. I don't care whether you've traded for 15 years or opened your first chart yesterday. Ask. If I know the answer, I'll explain it. If I don't know the answer, I'm not going to bullshit you. We'll work together and figure it out. None of us has this market completely figured out. We're here to learn from each other, become better traders, and hopefully protect a little more capital along the way. See you in the Premarket Prep.