$SCCO – Copper Hits Record Highs. Treasury Just Fired a Shot. Southern Copper CorporationBATS:SCCOkunal00When copper breaks out, you want the highest quality producer with the largest reserves in the world in your portfolio. That's Southern Copper. Stock pulled back from $221 to $190 while the underlying commodity kept running. The catch-up trade is setting up right here. In with a stop at $190. If that level holds, this trade has significant room. ───────────────────────────────── THE CATALYST THAT HIT YESTERDAY ───────────────────────────────── Most traders missed this because it came out mid-week with no fanfare. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the Treasury is doubling its long-term bond buyback program — from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9 through November 4. The 30-year Treasury yield immediately dropped more than 10 basis points. The dollar fell 0.8% on the announcement. Here's why that matters for SCCO. When the dollar falls, dollar-priced commodities get cheaper for every buyer outside the US overnight. That's an instant tailwind for copper, gold, and silver simultaneously. Analysts noted that Treasury suppressing long-term yields is inherently inflationary — and when inflation expectations rise, metals are the direct beneficiary. This is not a coincidence that copper is breaking out the same week Treasury intervenes in the bond market. That's the trade. ───────────────────────────────── THE COPPER FUNDAMENTALS ───────────────────────────────── COMEX copper futures touched record territory near $6.70-$6.73 per pound in early August. LME warehouse stocks declined 46% from the May peak. The cash premium over three-month forward copper hit $207.50 per tonne — the widest of 2026 — signaling buyers are so desperate for physical metal they will pay a premium to avoid waiting. That's acute scarcity in the spot market. You don't fake that. Data center demand for copper alone is projected to hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026 — up from 110,000 tonnes last year. That's more than a 4x increase in one year from AI infrastructure alone. The same AI buildout driving your semiconductor and neocloud names is also driving copper demand. The Congo just banned copper concentrate exports. Chile production is falling 2.6% this year. The world's second largest mine at Grasberg in Indonesia is offline until 2028. Supply is not catching up to this demand. ───────────────────────────────── WHY SCCO SPECIFICALLY ───────────────────────────────── Southern Copper is not a spec play on copper prices. This is the largest copper reserve holder in the world — period. Bigger than Freeport, bigger than BHP for pure-play copper reserves. When copper runs this is the name institutions go to first. The stock is up 41% year to date. Q2 revenue growth accelerated to 32.8%. Production guidance was raised to 917,000 tonnes this year. And the company just raised its quarterly dividend to $1.10 per share — a 3.9% yield at current prices. You're getting paid to hold the world's best copper miner while copper breaks to all-time highs. 52-week low was $89. 52-week high was $221. Stock is sitting right in the $190-200 range building a base while the underlying commodity breaks out above it. That disconnect between the commodity and the stock is exactly what you look for before a catch-up move. ───────────────────────────────── THE SETUP ───────────────────────────────── Stock pulled back from $221 to $190s while copper kept running. Base is forming right here at $190. The underlying commodity — copper itself — is breaking out to new record highs. The Treasury catalyst just dropped the dollar and sent metals higher. This is the setup. Copper leads. Miners follow. SCCO is the highest quality copper miner on earth. ───────────────────────────────── TRADE PLAN ───────────────────────────────── Entry: In at current levels on the base breakout Stop: $190 — below the base support Macro catalyst: Treasury bond buyback doubled August 19 → dollar weaker → metals rally Fundamental catalyst: Record copper prices, 32.8% revenue growth, raised production guidance Yield: 3.9% quarterly dividend while you hold 52-week range: $89 to $221 — base is forming at $190 ───────────────────────────────── THE RISK ───────────────────────────────── SCCO is operationally concentrated in Peru and Mexico — political and regulatory risk in both countries is real and has historically moved the stock on bad news. CICC downgraded to Market Perform last month. The stock trades at a premium valuation versus book value. If copper reverses hard on dollar strength or a China demand slowdown, SCCO follows. The $190 stop is the line. Respect it.