Markets have been left to parse Warsh's tone rather than his words, and bond pricing shows the strain of that ambiguity. Short-term yields fell after his last press conference, while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 and the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to around 6.75%, its highest point this year. That divergence points to investors suspecting the Fed may tolerate somewhat higher inflation in the near term at the cost of larger rate increases later. With three officials already voting to raise rates last month and others reportedly open to joining them, any hint of Warsh's own lean at Jackson Hole could quickly move rate expectations and yields across the curve.But will we get views from him? I wrote this earlier and I'm not convinced otherwise:Jackson Hole hype outruns Warsh playbook of saying as little as possible---Warsh has said remarkably little about how he'd fix inflation, and Jackson Hole is where that starts to cost him.Summary:Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has not disclosed his view on whether current inflation reflects one-off shocks, such as tariffs and the Iran war, or an overheating economy, according to the Wall Street Journal (gated)Three Fed officials voted last month to raise rates, the most dissents in a decade, with others said to be open to joining themWarsh has built his approach around communicating less, arguing past chairs talked too much and let forecasts harden into commitmentsSofter inflation data over the past two months has eased pressure for a September hike but hasn't resolved whether current rates, near 3.6%, are restrictive enoughThe 30-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest since 2007 and the average 30-year mortgage rate to around 6.75%, suggesting markets see room for higher inflation now and steeper rate rises laterFederal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh arrives at this week's Jackson Hole conference still withholding the one thing investors and his own colleagues most want to hear: whether he believes today's inflation is a passing shock or a sign the economy is running too hot, according to the Wall Street Journal.The distinction matters because it determines whether the Fed raises rates further. It has also split the committee. Three officials voted last month to raise rates, the most dissents in a decade, and others have signaled openness to joining them, the Journal reported. Warsh has not indicated where he stands, part of what the paper described as a deliberate policy of saying less. He has argued for years that central bankers talk too much, issuing forecasts that end up hardening into commitments they later have to defend or unwind.That approach marks a real shift in how the Fed communicates. Where past chairs leaned on detailed forward guidance to steer expectations, Warsh has largely left markets and colleagues to infer his reasoning from the Fed's actions rather than his words. The result, per the report, is that both investors and fellow policymakers are effectively waiting on him to show his hand before the debate can move forward. University of Chicago economist Anil Kashyap told the Journal that until Warsh makes an explicit argument, it may be difficult for him to carry the committee with him.Softer inflation readings over the past two months have taken some pressure off the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting, but they have not settled the underlying question of whether policy is restrictive enough given ongoing risks from the Iran war, new tariffs and the AI investment boom, the Journal noted. Some officials point to solid consumer spending and strong demand for labor and credit as reasons to keep tightening. Others, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, have said businesses are struggling to make price increases stick as shoppers trade down or delay big purchases.Bond markets appear to be drawing their own conclusions in the absence of clear guidance. The Journal reported that after Warsh's July press conference, short-term yields fell even as the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, with the 30-year mortgage rate rising to around 6.75%, the highest so far this year. That combination, the paper said, suggests investors think the Fed may be willing to accept somewhat higher inflation now in exchange for larger rate increases down the road.Whether Warsh can turn that ambiguity into a coherent strategy may define his chairmanship, the Journal reported, particularly as he faces the broader task of explaining how the Fed should operate in an environment of deglobalization, reduced immigration and recurring geopolitical conflict, one that looks little like the 1990s framework he has often cited as a model.---This year's gathering, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, runs from Thursday through Saturday at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and carries the theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," with sessions centred on how digital payments, central bank digital currencies and fintech are reshaping monetary transmission and regulation. Roughly 120 central bankers, policymakers, economists and academics from more than 70 countries are expected to attend. Given that framing, a speech built around payments and financial technology rather than a direct policy signal would leave both markets and reporters covering the event with little new to work with on where Warsh actually stands on inflation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.