NVDA Earnings Map — Current Scenario Weighting NVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDAheavydiligenceNVDA heads into earnings sitting around 215, with a pretty clean multi-timeframe structure developing. On the 15-minute chart, I’m watching two important overhead AOA clusters: ~219–220 ~224–226 The yellow horizontal levels are the larger hourly AOAs: 217 208 206 197 The boxes mark areas where multiple 15-minute AOAs clustered within roughly the same dollar. I treat those as decision zones, not exact prices. Current scenario weighting Green — 38% Reclaim 217, establish above 219–220, and the next major test becomes 224–226. If earnings produce real acceptance above 226, I would consider that a meaningful structural change rather than simply an earnings spike. Yellow — 34% This is not a “nothing happens” scenario. NVDA could produce significant earnings volatility but ultimately remain trapped inside the larger structure — spikes, reversals, failed breaks and continued negotiation around 217–220. With earnings, a big move does not automatically equal a successful breakout. Red — 22% Failure around 217 followed by deterioration opens 208–206. That is the first major downside hourly decision area. Lose that cluster and fail to reclaim it, and 197 becomes considerably more relevant. Orange — 6% tail-risk scenario And then there is the reminder that literally anything can happen. An unexpected macro event, geopolitical shock, broad liquidation, or company-specific surprise could simply blow through the normal map. Orange represents that low-probability outcome. I don’t weight it alongside the normal scenarios because I expect it. I map it because I’d rather have considered the ridiculous outcome before it happens than see it for the first time while the market is collapsing. Important These are current scenario weights, not fixed predictions. I fully expect to revisit this Monday and again as we approach earnings. If price structure, broader market conditions, options-implied move, or new information changes, the weighting should change too. That isn’t moving the goalposts. That is the entire purpose of evidence-based analysis.